Playing at home against a team in the middle of the ACC pack, this is a game that the Louisville Cardinals figure they should win. North Carolina probably thought the same thing when they faced the Miami Hurricanes two weeks ago, but it was Miami that pulled off the 15-point stunner against the No. 9 Tar Heels. And for the Canes to improve their at-large tournament hopes, a similar victory will surely help. But this one is on the road where the Cardinals have lost just once all season.
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The Hurricanes are on a little run after knocking off Virginia Tech 74-68 on Wednesday night for their fourth win the last five outings. The run included a 77-62 home win over North Carolina two weeks ago, getting the straight up win as a 5.5-point dog. But that cover win was just the Canes’ third in the last 10 games and put them at 6-15 ATS overall.
It was a brutal day for the Cardinals on Monday. Not only did they have to play No. 12 Virginia on the road, they had to do it without several key players. Second-leading scorer Quentin Snider sat out with an injury and third-leading scorer Deng Adel served a one-game, team imposed suspension. To the surprise of no one, Louisville saw its three-game winning streak come to an end. With the suspensions over, the Cardinals return home where they are 12-1 SU and 10-2 ATS.
Injury Report
Following their loss to Virginia, there is good news for the Cardinals. Snider has progressed well enough from his hip injury that he is likely to play on Saturday. And the suspensions to Adel and Mangok Mathiang have been served and they should be back in the lineup as well. And that spells trouble for the Hurricanes.
With Snider back at the point, leading scorer Donovan Mitchell can move off the ball where he is more dangerous. Mitchell had to take over those duties when Tony Hicks was shelved with a hand injury. After missing six games, it’ll be interesting to see how well Snider plays and if he can find a groove with his backcourt mate. The interior also becomes much stronger with Adel, who averages 11.1 points, and Mathiang, who grabs a team-high 6.2 rebounds per game, back in the lineup.
Player to Watch
One player who could bolster Miami’s chances of an upset is third-leading scorer Bruce Brown. The freshman showed glimpses of what he’s capable of when he poured in 30 points in the win over North Carolina and his ability to score takes some pressure off the duo of Davon Reed and Ja’Quan Newton. The three are the only players averaging in double figures.
Brown has reached double figures in 14 games but has totaled just nine points in the past two and looked “subdued” according to Jim Larranaga. Miami will be outclassed inside so perimeter play is a key. If Brown finds his stroke similar to what we saw against UNC, the Canes have another weapon on the outside to even things out. Getting Brown to up his game makes the offense more productive and difficult to stop.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
The ACC is brutal this season and we can see almost any team post an upset on any day. Miami has a big one with their dismantling of North Carolina two weeks ago. And it wasn’t a lucky victory. The Canes played an inspired game and ran the Heels off the court with their speed and ball-handling ability. It’s the type of game Larranaga expects from his squad, but hasn’t gotten on a consistent basis.
And heading to Louisville to face the Cardinals, who are coming off a loss and will have some key personnel back in the rotation, is a formidable task. The Canes are a fun team to watch, but they will be outclassed in this one by a hungry team. But I like the Canes to keep it close and get the cover win.
College Basketball Odds: Louisville 77, Miami 72
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