The Hurricanes sit at the top of the ACC standings alongside the likes of UNC and will look to pad their resume with a win over No. 20 Notre Dame on Wednesday. The Irish already got a win over Miami down in the Sunshine State and will aim to sweep the regular season series.
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HOW THE MIAMI HURRICANES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
A nine-point victory already shows how the Hurricanes can cover the spread. In that game, Miami shot 56.4 percent from the floor, over 10 percent points higher than Notre Dame.
Anthony Lawrence Jr. led the Hurricanes in scoring with 18-points off the bench, shooting 5-for-6 from the floor, including sinking all four of his shots from behind the arc.
While it would be unrealistic to expect another big game from Lawrence, what we saw in their February battle was a balanced attack for Miami. The balance between a defense ranked No. 46 in college hoops with 66.3 PPG allowed and an offense shooting 47.5 percent from the floor on average was on display.
Meanwhile, individually, the Hurricanes had answers inside and out. Guards Sheldon McClellan, Angel Rodriguez and Ja’Quan Newton all scored 12 points apiece. On the season, they’re each averaging at least 10.9 PPG while McClellan leads the way with 15.6.
While the collection of guards can be counted on daily to deliver, it was the performance of the frontcourt that really gave Miami the edge. Center Tonye Jekiri shot 3-for-6 from the floor for six points. That’s in line with his standard production, but the key was his rebounding. He notched 12 boards and averages 9.2 RPG. Lawrence and Kamari Murphy, meanwhile, provided the scoring inside.
HOW THE NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH CAN COVER THE SPREAD
While the Hurricanes’ frontcourt showed up the last time these teams faced, the Irish have the statistical edge inside. It’ll be hard for Lawrence and Murphy to repeat.
Notre Dame’s defense isn’t that strong so the Hurricanes will get their points, but the Irish should be able to hold them below the 56.4 percent shooting they recorded last time these teams met. That alone should make this a closer game.
The Irish will also be at home where they’ve won six straight games and covered the spread in four straight. While Miami is a dominant team ATS at 17-9-1, they’re just 3-6 ATS when on the road.
In terms of player matchups, Demetrius Jackson versus Sheldon McClellan should be interesting to watch. Jackson chimes in with 16.3 PPG, more than McClellan and is tops on the team in assists with 132. He’s joined on the perimeter by Steve Vasturia who’ll help match up with Rodriguez and Newton.
Inside the paint, the Irish are deeper than Miami. Forwards Zach Auguste, Bonzie Colson and V.J. Beachem all have at least 11.4 PPG and Auguste is outrebounding Jekiri at 10.4 RPG.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Miami got out to a big early lead in their last meeting and that was enough to hand them the win, SU and ATS. Still, we saw the Irish fight back a bit in the second half, outscoring the Hurricanes 37-34.
Bringing the game to South Bend could be just the edge the Irish need for some revenge.
Don’t count on the Hurricanes having the same amount of success inside as they did last go around and look for far less production off the bench. While I still favor Miami’s collection of guards over Jackson and company, I look for the Irish to win this one inside with a huge performance from Auguste who has seven double-doubles in his last 11 games.
Notre Dame 76, Miami 72
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