The South Region is proving to be a tremendous gauntlet for the teams at the top of the bracket. That said, on the bottom half of the bracket, both the Miami Hurricanes and the Villanova Wildcats have had a relatively easy road to reach the Sweet 16, though only one will get into the Elite 8.
College Basketball Odds at BookMaker.eu
Miami Hurricanes +4.5
Villanova Wildcats –4.5
Over/Under 142
HOW THE MIAMI HURRICANES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
In a tournament where big men have really done a great job getting some of their teams into the Sweet 16, Miami's guards have made all the difference in the world. Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriguez are both fifth-year seniors, and they're certainly playing like it at this point.
Rodriguez in particular has been a pest on both sides of the court. He has seven steals already in his two games, and his 28-point showing against Wichita State was one of the most impressive individual displays we've seen here in March Madness. He single-handedly turned that game into a 27-6 romp in the early going, and his great foul shooting and calm demeanor while running the offense put the game away when the Shockers mounted a comeback.
The Canes are also going to have to get to the line a ton in this one. They're a great foul shooting team, and McClellan and Rodriguez have already combined to shoot 40 free throws in the dance. If they can get into the high teens in attempted free throws in this game while the team gets in the high-20s or better, it'll be a good sign for success.
HOW THE VILLANOVA WILDCATS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Finally after all these years, it seems like Jay Wright has a group of seniors playing like seniors. Ryan Arcidiacono is one of the top players in the entire nation, and though his statistics don't match up to those of Rodriguez, no one is going to take anything away from him. He's a bother on defense for sure, and he'll have the tough task of slowing down Rodriguez. Winning that battle is going to be crucial for Villanova.
Miami's interior play on defense is great, but that shouldn't preclude Daniel Ochefu from having a good game in this one. Ochefu was relatively quiet against Iowa with just six points and 11 boards, but he facilitated so many big plays with four assists as well. The ball absolutely has to go through the paint or the post in a lot of these possessions, particularly when Miami switches off to a zone defense as it has tended to do in tight spots thus far in the tourney.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
There isn't going to be any shame in either of these teams bowing out at this stage, particularly against the other. We think that Villanova is still a little overplayed here, though.
Miami has been underrated in this tournament, and it really started with its game which was shaky at times against Buffalo. Still, the Canes have one of the best backcourts in America, and they're going to be getting some points in this game as well. We know we want the points on our side, but "The U" is going to be too good at the guard spots for Villanova to stop.
We expect a close call either way, and that's why the points could be valuable if we're wrong with our prediction for the SU victory.
Miami 67, Villanova 65
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