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The Miami Hurricanes cemented their placement in the Big Dance with a second round win and cover against the Syracuse Orange. That moved Jim Larranaga’s kids to a game over .500 on neutral courts for the season. Now they’ll be faced with what one could argue is their toughest test of the season in a neutral court matchup against the tourney’s top seed North Carolina Tar Heels who enter this tilt with revenge after getting trounced in Coral Gables at the end of January.
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Before dropping back-to-back games at Virginia Tech and Florida State, the Canes had come out victorious in six of their seven previous games with the lone defeat coming in a covering effort at Louisville. That finds Davon Reed and his mates 6-4 against the spread over their last 10 games after outlasting Syracuse Wednesday afternoon. A far improvement from sitting seven games under .500 against the linemakers for the season. Miami has been a solid money-maker for dog players this season in going 5-3 against the spread and enters this tilt covering four of the last five times.
The Tar Heels came out the best team in the ACC winning 26 of 32 overall games while earning the best mark of any of their league mates by posting a 14-4 record. They closed the odds on favorites to win the ACC Tournament at +185 and only Kansas and Villanova possess shorter odds to win the NCAA Tournament ( +590 ). Save for being held to the lowest point total of the Roy Williams era at Virginia, UNC closed the regular season winning five of its last six games and closed it out with a big win at home against the hated Duke Blue Devils. The Heels check in 4-1 straight up and 3-1-1 against the spread on neutral courts.
Key Stat
The Hurricanes continue to play an incredible brand of defensive basketball. In limiting the Orange to just 57 points, Miami has prevented each of its last seven opponents to surpass the 70 point plateau. During that stretch, they’ve allowed just 59.0 points per game and already held North Carolina to 62 points in the team’s lone regular season skirmish. The unit has the defensive makeup to keep the Tar Heels potent offense in check once again with it ranked No. 19 in adjusted defensive efficiency per the current Pomeroy Ratings.
Last Meeting
It was an ugly state of affairs for Justin Jackson and company when they hopped on a plane and headed for warmer temperatures back on January 28. The 77-62 defeat amounted to the team’s worst loss of the season at that point in time. Miami hardly impressed offensively shooting just 41.1 percent from the field, but the defense was relentless with it limiting the Heels to a 35 percent conversion rate while forcing 14 turnovers. Frosh Bruce Brown had one of the best efforts of his young career with a game-high 30 points, while Kamari Murphy’s 9 rebounds helped lead the Canes to the 36-31 win in the battle of the boards.
Free College Basketball ATS Pick
The Hurricanes were brilliant in their five point win over Syracuse. While they only shot 43.1 percent from the field, the offense hit big shots when it needed to and got a couple of them from freshman Dejan Vasiljevic whose 3-balls helped thwart the Orange from seizing control of the game mid-way through the second half. Most importantly, they only turned the ball over seven times and picked up seven offensive boards to the Orange’s three. If they execute like that, they can beat anyone in this tournament.
UNC is a much different animal than that of Syracuse, and it got to see exactly what Miami was all about in the first meeting. Though they took their lumps, the game film will prove to be invaluable for this rematch. I faded Miami versus the Orange. It put forth one of its best overall efforts of the season and still struggled to separate until late. While the Heels have had their issues away from Chapel Hill, I expect the No. 1 seed to come out guns ablaze and win the rematch by margin by taking much better care of the basketball and winning the rebounding battle.
College Basketball Odds: North Carolina 78, Miami 67
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