The Michigan Wolverines find themselves planted directly on the NCAA Tournament bubble after falling at home to what’s proven to be a not so good Ohio State team. A terrible loss for sure, but it can all be swept under the rug if John Beilein’s kids can find a way to hand the streaking Michigan State Spartans a defeat on Super Tuesday. That will likely prove to be a heck of a chore with Sparty taking each of the last five skirmishes.
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Since going down in defeat and failing to cover three straight against Ohio State, Indiana and Purdue, Tom Izzo’s Spartans look to be back on track after logging back-to-back wins and pointspread covers as short chalk against these same Wolverines and Nebraska. While the offense remains a concern, the defense stepped up to allow for the wins in giving up just 62 and 61 points respectively. MSU enters this tilt 2-2 straight up and against the spread on the true B1G road.
Losers in three of their first four conference tilts, Big Blue looked to have it turned around the second half of January in taking three of four with the lone defeat coming in the form of a 68-64 loss at Wisconsin; a game they ultimately covered as 10.5 point underdogs. They then took care of business against Illinois and then trounced Indiana 90-60 in their most impressive Big Ten showing. Then the team incurred its fifth straight defeat to MSU and followed it up with a terrible effort against the Buckeyes. Michigan enters this tilt 12-3 straight up but just 4-8 against the spread as a host.
Key Stat
33.9% - That’s what the Wolverines shot from the field in the first meeting in East Lansing. A game they dropped 70-62 as short 3 point underdogs. The only reason the final margin of victory came in at eight points was because Derrick Walton Jr. got to the free throw line 15 times and sunk 14 of them. In all, Michigan shot 19 free throws compared to the Spartans 23 which comes away as shocking when you consider the Wolverines were the road team. Regardless, Michigan is going to need a more crisp shooting effort to snap this losing streak against its hated rivals.
Revenge Angle
The Wolverines were embarrassed in last year’s lone meeting with the Spartans falling 89-73 as 4.5 point underdogs. The worst thing about the 16 point defeat was the fact that the game took place on its own hardwood. That defeat was followed up with an 8 point loss in East Lansing just nine days ago. Michigan has now dropped each of its last five tilts with Michigan State and managed just one cover against the spread in those contests. It’s also fallen each of the last two times its hosted this rivalry losing by an average of 14.5 points per game. The over cashed in both games.
Free College Basketball ATS Pick
I’m really liking what I’m seeing from Sparty of late. Granted it’s only a two-game sample, but that’s more than enough for me to think this team has actually come around to the point to make that end of season run I expected when the season originally tipped off. The offense has been incredibly efficient converting better than 52 percent of its shots in its last two games, while the defense has been great the other way in holding its last two opponents to less than 39 percent showings.
If Sparty is to truly make a run and compete for league honors, it has to continue beating the conference dregs with teams like Purdue, Wisconsin and Maryland all still on the schedule. It’s owned the recent rivalry with the Wolverines and Michigan simply just doesn’t look to have it this season. This will likely be another tightly contested nip and tuck affair, but in the end, I see Miles Bridges and company pulling it out.
College Basketball Odds: Michigan State 73, Michigan 67
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