The fans at the Crisler Center were leaving in droves midway through the second half on Tuesday. The Michigan Wolverines were blown out by Indiana, and the last thing they want to have happen is to get blown out once again at the hands of their instate rivals, the Michigan State Spartans.
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SCHEDULING
Michigan's last true road game was back on January 23. The Wolverines had to come into this stretch thinking that 4-0 against Rutgers, Penn State, Indiana and Michigan State was entirely possible, but anything less than 3-1 would be an unmitigated disaster. After getting embarrassed by Indiana, a loss in this game would be devastating for the Big Blue nation.
Michigan State, which has quietly won and covered three games in a row with ease, is out on the road for the first of a two-game trip. Both games are certainly tough, as the second is with Purdue. This is the first game since last Sunday for the Spartans, and their last seriously tough game came against Maryland back on January 23. To say that Sparty should be well-rested is an understatement.
KEY MATCHUP
The point guard spot is crucial in college basketball, and the Wolverines really did a miserable job against Yogi Ferrell on Tuesday. Ferrell might have only scored 17 points, but he also had nine assists and only turned the ball over once. As a result, Indiana scored 48 points in the first 21 minutes of the game and coasted to an 80-67 triumph.
What's unique about Michigan State is that its point guard isn't truly a guard. Denzel Valentine is a prototypical point forward, as he leads the team in points at 18.5 per game and assists at 6.6 per game, and he's had eight games this year with double digits in rebounds.
Sparty is very likely going to be without Lourawls Nairn Jr., who is the team's backup point guard. Nairn might only average 4.1 points and 4.5 assists per game, but he takes a ton of pressure off of Valentine and averages being on the court for over 24 minutes per game. His plantar fasciitis is a big problem though, and it's unlikely he'll be on the floor come Saturday.
Not having Nairn on the court is going to be a big deal, but if the Wolverines can't figure out how to slow down Valentine on the ball, the same issue that came up against Indiana is going to come up against Michigan State. Live bettors should be ready to pounce if Valentine is taking this game over, particularly on the offense end of the court.
KEY STATS & TRENDS
Michigan might be 4-2 SU in its last six games, but it's only 1-5 ATS in that stretch. The fact of the matter is that the Wolverines only have one win or cover against an NCAA Tournament team in the Big Ten this year, that being at home against Maryland.
Live bettors need to be ready to get onboard if the Wolverines are struggling offensively. Michigan State has held six foes in the Big Ten to 65 points or fewer; it's 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in those games. When the Spartans allow more than 70, they're in a lot of trouble, going 0-4 SU and ATS in those games in conference play.
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