The Michigan State Spartans broke their three-game skid on Saturday when they took out Maryland at home, but they could go right back to their losing ways if they aren’t careful when they visit the Northwestern Wildcats.
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HOW THE MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Spartans' win over the Terps was all about a recommitment to the defensive side of the ball. All three foes which beat Michigan State shot over 43 percent from the field with each tickling the twine for at least 72 points; that isn't Tom Izzo basketball.
Instead on Saturday, the Spartans buckled down and held Maryland to just 22 made field goals and 38.6 percent shooting to go along with five blocked shots.
Matt Costello was the man of the hour, as he had 15 points, 12 rebounds and three of those five rejections, and his play at both ends of the court was the difference maker.
Denzel Valentine is back and playing at his full potential, but he needs a running mate on the outside. Bryn Forbes hit four threes against Maryland en route to a 25-point game, and we think he's going to be pivotal in this game too, especially if possessions are limited as we suspect they might be.
HOW THE NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
There really are two keys to Northwestern pulling off an upset like this, and both things have to work in harmony with one another.
For one, the offense has to work at a slow and methodical pace. There's no way a team like Northwestern has the athletes to win a game in the high-70s or 80s against a team like Michigan State.
On the other end of the court, the defense has to make sure possessions are one and done.
Alex Olah might need to play more than what he's been used to of late at 24+ minutes per game, and he and Sanjay Lumpkin are going to have to be huge on the glass. Costello alone had six offensive rebounds against Maryland, and if he isn't contained and is getting stick back points, the Wildcats are in trouble.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
We haven't mentioned Bryant McIntosh yet, but he's going to be the most important player on the court. He's the man tasked with keeping this Northwestern offense under control. He's the leading scorer at 15.1 points per game and is one of the top ball handlers in the nation with 7.0 assists per game.
When the Wildcats win big NCAAB games like this one, McIntosh is accounting for at least 30 points between what he scores and what he dishes off.
We think he'll come short in this game, though.
Michigan State will be pushed for the full 40 minutes, and if it is laying more than three or so, we'd want the points on our side in spite of the fact that Northwestern is only 4-6 ATS here at Welsh Ryan Arena in 2015-16.
However, we still aren't convinced that all is right in Spartan Land quite yet. The win over Maryland was emotional, but it'll take a few tough wins like this one to have us convinced MSU is fully back on track. Take the points.
Michigan State 68, Northwestern 65
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