Michigan State will look to make it five straight wins on Tuesday when it travels to West Lafayette to take on the Boilermakers. The Spartans hit a bit of a snag on the road last month, but have been rolling since. A fellow ranked team in Purdue will give the Spartans another nice test.
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HOW THE MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Michigan State has won four straight games, covering the spread in each. Included in those four wins is a 74-65 victory over Maryland. The Spartans’ opponents on Tuesday fell over the weekend to that same Maryland team.
The Spartans defense is top notch, allowing the opposition to shoot just 37 percent from the floor, the fourth lowest percentage in all of college basketball. That’s led to a very strong 62.9 PPG allowed.
Of course, it’s not just the defense that gives Michigan State a great chance at covering the spread; they’ve got an elite level offense as well.
Michigan State is especially adept at shooting from the outside in sinking 42.4 percent of its three-point attempts. From the floor, they’re sinking 48.4 percent of their shots and scoring 79.4 PPG. That kind of balance is hard to beat, particularly with the Spartans at the top of their game.
Individually, Denzel Valentine and Bryn Forbes combined for 50 points on Saturday against the Wolverines. The two guards are truly elite, but Matt Costello gives them a nice threat inside as well.
Looking to the boards, the Spartans close out the trifecta, coupling a strong defense and good offense with the third most RPG in the sport. Michigan State is averaging 42.8 RPG; 16.2 more than they’re giving up as they’re ranked in the top-10 in college hoops at both ends of the floor.
HOW THE PURDUE BOILERMAKERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
It’s true that the Boilermakers fell to the Terps last time out, but the Boilermakers are still a ranked team and still have great stats on both sides of the ball.
Defensively, Purdue could pose serious issues for the Spartans who are allowing the opposition to shoot just 30.6 percent from three-point range and are excellent blockers both inside and out.
Offensively, the team has the firepower to hang with the big boys. That includes Michigan State thanks to 78.3 PPG.
As recently as their second to last game, the Boilermakers put 89-points on the board against Nebraska.
Purdue doesn’t possess the strength at the top that the Spartans do, but they can go deeper. They’ve got five players with at least nine PPG and have a bit more talent inside. Center A.J. Hammons is scoring 14.5 PPG, combining for 50 points over the team’s last two games.
While the rebounding game is a strength of the Spartans, it’s not a differentiator from them. Purdue is ranked in the top-10 in both RPG and fewest RPG allowed to the opposition, resulting in a 14.8 RPG difference between what the Boilermakers are recording and what they’re allowing.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Spartans are the stronger team on the outside and Purdue doesn’t match up against Valentine or Forbes. Michigan State also provides a superior shooting percentage.
This should be a very close game. Both teams are strong across the board and the winner of the rebounding battle should win the game. Look for that to be Michigan State.
Simply put, they’re rolling right now and the Boilermakers have to rebound off a tough loss.
Between Costello, Deyonta Davis and surprisingly 7.8 RPG from Valentine, the Spartans should have more than enough success on the glass. Given the superior shooting percentage, that should be plenty to get them over the top even with this game taking place in hostile territory.
Michigan State 78, Purdue 75
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