It’s been a storybook season for the Minnesota Golden Gophers and they’ll look to continue the magical ride with a quarterfinal matchup against the Michigan State Spartans. The roles have been reversed for this contest with Minnesota holding the edge as the No. 4 seed. The Gophers earned their highest seeding in the conference tournament, but Sparty is right on their heels as the No. 5 team. The Big Ten has seen plenty of changes this season and no team really stands out as the favorite to claim the tournament title, and it just might be one of these two.
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Minnesota won just eight games last season, so you could say they’re playing with house money. The turnaround came quickly and the Gophers matched last year’s win total with an eight-game streak at the end of the regular season when they went 7-1 ATS. But there could be some trepidation on Minnesota’s part heading into their first tournament game. The Gophers were slammed by Wisconsin, 66-49, in their last game, producing the second-fewest points in a game this year. The lowest total came in a 65-47 loss to Michigan State in January.
No matter what happens during the regular season the Spartans always seem to be at their best during the Big Ten Tournament. MSU entered having lost its final two regular season games and needed two victories to reach the 20-win plateau for a sixth straight season. Sparty pounced on Penn State Thursday, posting a 78-51 win and never allowing the Nittany Lions to sniff an upset. They also caught a team playing its second game in less than 24 hours. Now it’ll be the Spartans with little rest against the Gophers, who had the double bye.
Last Meeting
If the Gophers need extra motivation for their contest with Michigan State, they can review the film of the last meeting. Minnesota has enjoyed a huge turnaround from their eight-win last season, but they looked like the 2015-16 version in a 65-47 loss to the Spartans in January. Minnesota just entered the national rankings at No. 24 but were steamrolled in a game they never had a chance of winning.
The result could have been because the Spartans were playing at home, but also due to the fact that they were upset by Penn State in the previous game and had a chip on their shoulder after that embarrassing loss. MSU flipped the script in that one with a stellar defensive effort and efficient offense. The Spartans held the Gophers to 33 percent shooting and allowed just seven trips to the free throw line. The Gophers had a little confidence heading in after losing 75-74 in overtime when the teams met for the first time.
Key Stat
The Big Ten as a whole isn’t flashy and the better teams rely on strong defense to get wins. The Golden Gophers have been a strong defensive team and they’ve gotten plenty of victories. Minnesota allows just 69 points per game, but their defensive efficiency rating of 92.7 according kenpom.com ranks 15th in the country and is the second-best in the Big Ten behind only Wisconsin.
The Golden Gophers are really good against teams that lack efficient play on both sides of the ball, but they’ve struggled against teams that put a high priority on execution. Michigan State is one of those teams. Minnesota lost twice to MSU during the regular season and it wasn’t a fluke. The Spartans were more precise on offense than the Gophers were defensively. And the Gophers don’t have the firepower to keep up if the defense falters.
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Minnesota has been a feel good story in college basketball this season and really has nothing to lose. The Gophers have primed themselves for a NCAA Tournament bid and are playing to rid the program of past demons. However, this is a bad matchup for them. The Spartans seem to rise to the occasion come Big Ten Tournament time and have a pair of victories over the Gophers already this season.
This is an unfamiliar spot for the Gophers and the regular season finale looked like things were catching up to them. MSU will play its second game in as many days and fatigue could be a factor, but the experience of the veterans and coach Tom Izzo will give Sparty the edge and allow them to cover the 1-point spread.
College Basketball Odds: Michigan State 66, Minnesota 61
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