The Michigan Wolverines have become the darlings of the postseason after their dramatic episode with their plane sliding off the runway, to their run through the Big Ten tournament, to a first round beating of Oklahoma State in the NCAA Tournament. One month ago the Wolverines were on the bubble, now they look like the team to beat in the Midwest Region. The Louisville Cardinals, back in the Dance after a self-imposed ban last season, might have something to say about that.
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It was the middle of February and the Wolverines just lost a heartbreaker to Minnesota in overtime, falling to 17-10 overall and 7-7 in the Big Ten. At the time they were a bubble team at best. But they won three of their final four regular season games and barely made it to the conference tournament after having a plane mishap on the trip to D.C. The Wolverines, who were close to not even making the trip, ran the table, winning and covering all four games in four days to earn the league’s automatic bid.
The Cardinals are ecstatic to be competing in the Big Dance this year after a postseason ban hit the club last season. And the Cards learned a thing or two from their early exit at the ACC Tournament. Louisville split its previous six games going 1-5 ATS and couldn’t hit a bucket in the final four minutes of their loss to Duke at the league tourney. The Cards used their length and athleticism to overwhelm Jacksonville State, 78-63, in the opener and feel good about their next opponent. The Cards have never lost to Michigan and beat them in the 2013 national championship game.
Key Stat
Louisville is one of the more active defensive teams in the country and they do a masterful job defending the three-point shot, which will be a key in this game. Louisville ended the season ranked 18th in three-point defense, allowing opponents to make just 30.9 percent from distance. The Cards’ ability to defend the triple will be huge against a Michigan team likes to launch from distance.
Michigan uses a four guard lineup and their run of success has been due in large part to their ability to make the three-pointer. The scoring comes from all over the court and not relying on one player to supply the offense makes the Wolverines tough to defend. However, with a decided advantage in the paint, the Cards won’t have to worry about any dribble penetration and can concentrate on defending the triple. That should be enough to shut Michigan down.
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Michigan showed off its ability to run the floor, shoot the three and score in its opening round 92-91 win over Oklahoma State. However, playing against the nation’s leader in offensive efficiency is one thing, doing it against one of the most efficient defensive clubs is another. But Derrick Walton Jr. will stick to the game plan.
Walton scored 26 points on 6 of 9 three-point shooting, and the Wolverines shot 55.2 percent from distance against the Cowboys. Michigan will have to have as much success against Louisville to advance and Walton is the catalyst. He is the player that can break down the Cards’ D with his shooting or finding a teammate for an open look. Walton had 11 assists in the first round win.
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Michigan sure is a good story with all the team has been through this postseason. The group has become closer and stronger on the court, led by Walton. But he’s not the only scorer on the floor. The Wolverines have gotten contributions from Zak Irvin, D.J. Wilson and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman to light it up from distance and score plenty of points.
But remember, the Wolverines were a bubble team just a month ago and the inspiration from their plane mishap and run through the Big Ten will come to an end. The Cardinals defend like no team in the Big Ten and they have depth that will be too much for UM to overcome. Louisville is also inspired by its return to the Tournament and will prove to be the better team on Sunday.
College Basketball Odds: Louisville 77, Michigan 71
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