Big Ten play begins and Michigan is expected to push top contenders Michigan State, Maryland and Indiana. The Wolverines are 10-3 and finished 8-10 in Big Ten play last season following a national championship game appearance in 2013. Illinois enters conference play at 8-5 and the Illini were 9-9 in Big Ten play a year ago.
Injuries are impacting the Illini's performances and new rotations, and more scoring is anticipated in this opening conference game.
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HOW THE MICHIGAN WOLVERINES WILL COVER THE SPREAD
The Wolverines played four soft teams and won them all prior to this game, and they are on a scoring spree while hitting a school-record 17 three-pointers in their most recent rout of Bryant. But the ‘Wolves were blasted by SMU a month ago 82-58 and also lost by double digits in their two other toughest tests against UCONN and Xavier. So it's tough to gauge Michigan but know for certain they are well-coached by John Beilein who will run some 1-3-1 zone at Illinois.
Senior guard Caris LeVert is a tall, tough cover who is scoring 17 points per game with over five rebounds and five assists per game. The sharp shooter is hitting 50 percent FG and better than 44 percent from downtown. He also gets to the free throw line often and will have the ball in his hands often as a better than 80 percent foul shooter. There are plenty of solid shooters on Michigan who boast a top-5 effective FG percentage and rank out top-20 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
The Illinois defense is deficient thus far and especially poor defending the arc allowing 39 percent shooting from long range. Wolverines point guard Derrick Walton is back healthy after struggling with a foot injury last season, and when he dribble-drives and distributes at his best, Michigan can be very good.
That should be the case against a less-resistant Illinois team in the opener.
HOW THE ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI WILL COVER THE SPREAD
Injuries have derailed fourth year coach John Groce's Illini, but Illinois played its best basketball for 25 minutes against Missouri last time out in a 68-63 win. Groce noted the defense was improved following their fifth straight win, but they have a ways to go if they plan to slow down Michigan and other top Big Ten teams.
Illinois is dependent on junior guards Malcolm Hill and Kendrick Nunn, a pair of 18 points per game scorers with Hill one of the league's top players. The swingman has an array of offensive skills and can be unstoppable at times, as was the case two games ago when he poured in a career-high 34 points against South Dakota.
Illinois has used at least 10 different starting lineups in the last 12 games, but Hill and Dunn will be the consistent and productive performers.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Both teams are very good taking care of the basketball on the offensive end as each features solid backcourt players with scoring stars LeVert and Hill both 6-foot 6 inch versatile performers. Michigan takes better than 45 percent of its shots from beyond the arc, and with limited defensive pressure, we're likely to see more scoring than expected for this Big Ten opener.
The Wolverines will get some small favoritism on the road, but that's a risk despite Illinois' deficient defense and pressure. The Illini have beaten a solid UAB team, lost by 1 point to Providence and led Notre Dame by eight points at halftime before falling 84-79 on this court as the Illini had just three turnovers.
It won't come as a surprise if Illinois pulls out a high-scoring home win to open up conference play.
Illinois 75, Michigan 73
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