Michigan will be in the market for revenge after SMU traveled to Ann Arbor and handed the Wolverines a 62-51 loss a year ago. SMU’s had the better season to date, based on record, but with a weaker ATS mark, Michigan is in position to at least keep it close on Super Tuesday.
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HOW THE MICHIGAN WOLVERINES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Michigan is stacked with guard talent, headlined by Caris LeVert. The veteran guard has shown growth over his four years with the Wolverines and is currently averaging 19.3 PPG over his first eight games. While he’s doing his share of scoring, he’s also leading the team in assists with 32, rebounds with 5.5 per game and is second in the steals department with 11.
Of course, one player does not make a team. In addition to LeVert, Michigan boasts strong play from Duncan Robinson who’s second on the team in scoring with 11.5 PPG and Derrick Walton Jr. Walton is third in scoring averaging 9.6 PPG, but is second in rebounds with 4.6 per game and assists with 25 over his seven games.
Of course, UConn and Xavier exposed some of Michigan’s weaknesses earlier this season, but the Wolverines have rebounded to win four straight SU and three in a row ATS.
Of course, height is a big concern for the Wolverines and while that pushes their offense back to the perimeter, that’s not going to hurt their defense.
Michigan should be able to hold the Mustangs’ offense at bay to keep themselves in the game. The Wolverines rank No. 39 in the nation, allowing just 63.4 PPG. In their sole road game of the year, they held North Carolina State to 59-points, capturing a 66-59 win over the Wolfpack in the Big Ten/ACC challenge.
HOW THE SMU MUSTANGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Michigan, as always, is a very good team and have strength at the point guard position. While they can thrive from the outside, they struggle on the interior.
SMU will look to take advantage of a weak team down low and try and push them into the paint.
Statistically, the Mustangs have the edge over Michigan in scoring, field goal percentage, defense, and rebounding.
The rebounding is key as Southern Methodist’s height gives them an edge.
With Nic Moore and Keith Frazier in the backcourt, the Mustangs can hang with Michigan at the guard position. In addition to them, however, they’ve got forward Ben Moore, Markus Kennedy and Jordan Tolbert all averaging at least 10.5 PPG and providing at least 5.8 RPG with all averaging three more boards than the Wolverines’ leading rebounder.
Even if the Wolverines are able to keep the game on the outside and in the hands of its strong class of guards, Walton Jr. is questionable for the game thanks to an ankle injury that sidelined him in his last game and allowed him just 13 minutes and four points on December 1.
The Mustangs also have the edge, playing on their home floor and have yet to drop a game this year SU, going 6-0 including their most recent 98-44 beat down of the New Hampshire Wildcats.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Southern Methodist has the stats, the talent down low and the guard play to win this game.
The extra rebounds should help a team that already owns the shooting edge with a 53.5 percent field goal conversion rate compared to 49.2 percent for the Wolverines.
LeVert is a dominant player and gets his teammates involved. He should help carry the team to a win, but with hardly any presence in the paint, it’s hard to outscore the opposition almost completely from the outside.
Take the Mustangs to win SU, but Michigan could keep this game close considering SMU’s struggles ATS, dropping three straight ATS in games with a published spread.
SMU 73 Michigan 67
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Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The Michigan Wolverines and the Southern Methodist Mustangs square off on Tuesday, December 8, 2015, at 9 p.m. ET at Moody Coliseum. You can watch the game live on ESPN2.
