The stakes couldn’t be higher for Michigan, as it battles No. 1 seed Indiana Friday in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals. The Wolverines advanced with an overtime win over Northwestern on Thursday and they are still in the hunt, however a loss likely seals an NIT bid. The Hoosiers haven’t played since Sunday and should be well rested.
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HOW THE MICHIGAN WOLVERINES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Michigan’s ceiling has been lowered significantly due to the loss of Caris LeVert, but the Wolverines still managed to put together a solid campaign that included home wins over Maryland and Purdue.
But a lack of top 100 wins – just three – has Michigan currently on the outside of the NCAA Tournament conversation. The Wolverines hope to boost their standing with a win over regular season champ Indiana, less than 24 hours after grinding out an overtime win over Northwestern.
The Wolverines don’t have much of an inside game, so they rely on four perimeter players for a significant chunk of their offensive production. Point guard Derrick Walton is the key, a rare player who leads his team in scoring, rebounding and assists.
Another is Zak Irvin, who hit the game-winner against Northwestern, but hit just six of his 16 shots from the field. Those two have to be on the top of their game for Michigan to hang close.
HOW THE INDIANA HOOSIERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Indiana has been off since Sunday because of a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament, but last time they took the floor they had a fairly easy time taking care of Maryland at Assembly Hall. They closed the season with six wins in seven games and are playing their best basketball.
It should be of little surprise that Indiana has one of the nation’s elite offenses. The Hoosiers are fifth in adjusted efficiency because they shoot the lights out and their shot selection is impeccable.
The Hoosiers rarely settle for mid-range jumpers, which are the least efficient in basketball. Instead, they go to the rim or fire away from downtown, and they’re fantastic at both. Plus, when their shots don’t go in, they excel at grabbing those rebounds for second-chance points.
Yogi Ferrell is the man that makes the offense work. Indiana is 16-1 when he scores more than 15 in a game. He’s averaged 20.5 over the past four contests. Ferrell scored 17 in the Hoosiers win at Michigan on Feb. 2, and Indiana worked its game to perfection.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Indiana has a history in the Big Ten Tournament and it’s not a very good one. The Hoosiers are 11-18 all-time in the event, have never won a title, have only played in one championship game and have only one semifinal appearance since 2007. The road this year isn’t any easier. If they get past the Wolverines, who desperately need a win to boost their NCAA Tournament hopes, the Hoosiers face a possible matchup with No. 13 Purdue. A win there could set up a championship game showdown with No. 2 Michigan State. But the Hoosiers wouldn’t have it any other way. They were a long shot to win the regular season title and they still have something to prove.
Indiana 75, Michigan 66
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