Apparently the seedings for the NCAA Tournament are just a suggestion. Entering the Dance as the 12th seed in the South Region, the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders did it again. After pulling off one of the biggest upsets in tournament history last year as a No. 15 seed, the Blue Raiders felt pretty good about their chances in the first round. A lot of other people liked them also, and they were a favorite in their win over Minnesota. A trip to the Sweet 16 is on the line when MTSU tangles with the Butler Bulldogs on Saturday.
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It isn’t often that a No. 12 seed is the favored team in the NCAA Tourney, but the Blue Raiders were giving Minnesota 1.5-points in their first round matchup. And MTSU didn’t disappoint, covering the line in their 81-72 victory, winning as the 12th seed or lower for the second straight season. MTSU had a nice run last year and knocked off Michigan State in one of the bigger upsets in Tournament history. This team is even better and poised for a trip to the Sweet 16. The Blue Raiders have now won 11 consecutive games going 9-2 ATS, and they’ve gone 21-1 since January 1.
Once the darling of the Tournament from the Horizon League, Butler has done a turnaround in a few years and is now the beast from the Big East. The Bulldogs were sharp in their tournament opener, never allowing Winthrop to muster any offensive consistency, and it resulted in a 76-64 cover win. It was a nice ice-breaker for the Bulldogs, who had lost two straight coming into the NCAA’s. Butler has done a nice job defensively all season and the grueling Big East schedule sets the Bulldogs up well for a run to the Sweet 16. They are all too familiar with the Cinderella story having been one themselves a few years back, so don’t expect then to take the Blue Raiders lightly in this matchup.
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One knock against the Bulldogs all season was their inability to consistently drain the three-point shot. With that part of the game such a big weapon today, it’s hard to imagine where Butler might be if it had shot better than 33 percent from beyond the arc. We got a glimpse of how good the Bulldogs are when the triple is a part of their offensive flow. Butler was efficient against Winthrop and canned 42 percent of its threes in the first round victory.
Behind the accuracy of Avery Woodson, who hit 6 of 10 from distance, the Bulldogs hit 8 of 19 from the beyond the arc. They didn’t overdo it from long-range, but that’s not their game. However, when the shots are there, knocking them down is important, and the Bulldogs knocked them down on Thursday.
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MTSU pulled away from Minnesota in the opener thanks in part to an aggressive defense. The Blue Raiders have done it all season and once again their trapping press didn’t allow for the Gophers to get into any offensive sets, leaving them to settle for too many three-point attempts.
The leader of the press is Giddy Potts, and he’ll try and wear down the Bulldogs backcourt with his endless supply of energy. Potts was limited in the opener due to foul trouble, but he left his mark while in the game. The Bulldogs are an experienced and disciplined team that doesn’t turn the ball over, so it’ll be up to Potts to supply pressure and force Butler out its game.
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After upsetting Michigan State in the first round last season, the Blue Raiders were smacked by Syracuse the next game. That’s one thing they want to avoid this year, but the reality is Butler has a strong team. Both teams have tremendous balance and are well coached, but the Bulldogs’ run in the Big East likely prepared them a bit better for this game.
Take nothing away from MTSU, which has won 21 of its last 22 games, and has three players in Potts, JaCorey Williams and Reggie Upshaw that are among the best in the tournament. Butler’s inside game is powerful and the Bulldogs will work down low. That will get the MTSU bigs in trouble and that’s where the game will be decided. Butler will be a slight favorite in this one and it will be close, but experience and depth is what will move Butler to the Sweet 16.
College Basketball Odds: Butler 75, Middle Tennessee State 70
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