It’s been quite a season for the Minnesota Golden Gophers, who enter the NCAA Tournament as a No. 5 seed in the South Region after winning a total of eight games last season. The Pitino coaching tree apparently has deep roots as son Richard earned Big Ten Coach of the Year honors and joined dad Rick as the only son/father combo to coach in the same NCAA Tournament. The Gophers open with a tough Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders squad, which pulled off an upset as a No. 15 seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament.
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Middle Tennessee State had never won more than 28 games in a season before. They captured 30 wins this season before the NCAA Tournament. The Red Raiders have lost just once in 2017 and ended the season with a 10-game winning streak by cruising through the Conference USA Tournament. MTSU won its three games by an average of 18 points while covering the spread each time. The Red Raiders pulled off one of the biggest upsets in tournament history last season, defeating No. 2 seed Michigan State in the first round. This year’s team is even better, which is why we see MTSU as only a 1.5-point dog in the 12/5 matchup.
It would have been difficult to predict the Golden Gophers dancing after a disastrous last season, the dismissal of several players in the offseason and the turmoil in Minnesota’s athletic department. But the Gophers are the feel good story of the year after winning 24 games and reaching the semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament. They benefitted from an overrated conference and used an eight-game winning streak against the league’s underachievers to pad the resume. The team was exposed in a season-ending loss to Wisconsin and again to Michigan in the conference tournament. If you’re looking for the upset pick, this is it.
Player to Watch
The Red Raiders are led by a standout group of upperclassmen with JaCorey Williams leading the way. Williams led the team in scoring and rebounding to earn C-USA player of the year honors, and he was a force in the paint all season. He’s the perfect weapon to combat Minnesota’s rim protectors and will make the Gophers work down low. Williams gets help from front court mate Reggie Upshaw and sets up the perimeter game for Giddy Potts by getting the defense to collapse.
Williams is so athletic that he’s tough for traditional centers to defend. He has the ability to battle in the block with his 6-8 frame and has touch in his perimeter game. Williams is what CBS Sports analyst Pete Gillen called a “difference maker.” There are quality big men in the Big Ten and they’ve given the Gophers problems. Most recently Michigan’s Moritz Wagner, who went for 17 points in only 18 minutes in the conference tournament semifinals.
Key Stat
Minnesota’s ability to block shots is a major factor in the success of its defense. Led by Reggie Lynch, who led the Big Ten with 3.5 blocks per game, the Gophers averaged 6.79 swats a contest. In turn they ranked 16th nationally in field goal percentage defense and 10th in three-point defense.
The Gophers have success when forcing teams to shoot from the perimeter and they’ll have to contain Williams and Upshaw inside for their game to work. If not, the Gophers will have a short stay.
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MTSU is a bad matchup for the Gophers. The Red Raiders have a solid inside game and play from the paint out. Williams is as good as any front court player Minnesota has faced this season and will make the bigs work on defense. Williams is deadly down low making 54 percent of his field goals, and most of them are at the hoop. The Red Raiders can also play defense and that will be the key against an offensively-challenged Gophers.
And I’m not convinced Minnesota is worthy of a No. 5 seed. They had a good year when the Big Ten had a down one and used the status of the league’s past to get as high as they did. Not to take anything away from them and what they accomplished this year, but this is a team that struggled and won just eight times last season. MTSU pulled off a major upset last year knocking off Michigan State and they’ll send another Big Ten team home in the first round this year.
College Basketball Odds: Middle Tennessee State 68, Minnesota 63
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