A loss to UMKC snapped a three game winning streak for the Bulldogs and knocked the team back down to .500 heading into a midweek showdown with the Seminoles. Florida State’s season has been a bit spotty, too, but it’s beaten the spread in back-to-back games heading into Sunday.
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HOW THE MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Bulldogs struggles stem primarily from a defense that’s surrendering 76.1 PPG and allowed as many as 105-points against Miami earlier this season.
For Mississippi State to cover the spread on Wednesday, its defense will have to step it up in a big way.
Good news for the Bulldogs: the defense has allowed fewer than its 76.1 point average in each of its last five games as the team is finally starting to come together at that end of the court.
While the defense is evolving and improving, the offense has been pretty strong all season long, averaging 80.2 PPG and shooting a very strong 48.6 percent from the field.
While the overall offense is very good, as they continue playing better teams like the Seminoles, they’ll need to improve their shooting behind the arc which ranks near the bottom of the league. They’ll also need to do a better job rebounding with the Bulldogs ranked No. 275 in the nation with just 34.8 per game.
Mississippi State lacks a bit of presence in the front court. Forward Gavin Ware is, however, a strong starter up front with his 19 PPG. He’s also the team leader in rebounds with 7.8 per game. They’ll need him to dominate the paint, allowing guards I.J. Ready, Craig Sword and Malik Newman to do their thing on the perimeter.
All three of those guards are averaging at least 12 PPG.
HOW THE FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
After a game on Sunday, the Seminoles will have two days off before taking on the Bulldogs.
Offensively, the Seminoles are one of the better teams in the nation, averaging 86.9 PPG. The team has eclipsed 90 three times, including against Ohio on a neutral floor. In playing VCU and Iowa we saw the team put up 76 and 75 points respectively.
Playing defense has been a bit more of a struggle, but the high powered offense has pulled through more often than not. The Seminoles’ fast paced play could be an issue for the Bulldogs, although they’re a high scoring team, too.
Individually, Florida State has two top end scorers, while the Bulldogs lean on Ware.
For the Seminoles guards Malik Beasley and Dwayne Bacon are averaging 18.6 and 17.7 PPG. While they don’t really have an answer in the front court for Ware, they should dominate in the backcourt.
They can also keep pace in rebounds as they’re actually averaging more rebounds per game than the Bulldogs.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Seminoles struggled against the Bulldogs last year, falling at Mississippi State 62-55 as 1.5-point road chalk. Florida State’s offense is too good for there to be a repeat this time around.
Despite last year’s loss, FSU should be significant favorites on Wednesday though Ware is a bit of a one man wrecking crew that could keep the game somewhat close. Kori Babineaux alone kept Jacksonville close to the Seminoles earlier this season and there could be a similar effect with Ware on Wednesday.
Still, look for the Seminoles to come away with the win with their team performing admirably on the outside and the Bulldogs’ backcourt coming in way overmatched.
Florida State 82, Mississippi State 74
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Click here and start wagering today! The matchup between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Florida State Seminoles will take place Wednesday, December 16, 2015, at 9 p.m. ET at the Donald L. Tucker Center. You can watch the game live on ESPN2.
