Losses to UCLA, Ohio State and LSU have caused the Wildcats to drop to No. 8 in the college basketball rankings. They took down the Crimson Tide on Saturday and are in place for another SEC victory when they return home to host the Bulldogs who'll be trying to avoid their third straight loss.
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HOW THE MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Mississippi State is 8-3 ATS this season and while they've yet to beat the spread as a visiting team, have covered on a few occasions away from home, on neutral turf.
Of course, Kentucky is still an elite team, but they've shown themselves to be a bit less dominant than in years past, giving the Bulldogs a shot.
To cover, the Bulldogs will have to lean on their offense. As a team, they're shooting 46.9 percent from the floor and are led by forward Gavin Ware who's shooting 65.3 percent. Ware is also averaging 17.2 PPG and eight RPG, leading the team in both categories.
Ware is one of four different active and healthy Bulldog players averaging double-digit PPG totals including guards Malik Newman, Craig Sword and I.J. Ready. With Ware manning the inside and the trio of guards providing solid offensive production out of the backcourt, this team is balanced enough to make a run at the Wildcats, at least from a pointspread standpoint.
On the year, the Wildcats are just 6-9 ATS and have struggled to cover as the heavy favorites more often than not. If trends continue, the Bulldogs are in a good position to cover.
HOW THE KENTUCKY WILDCATS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Kentucky's overall mark against the closing number may be poor, but the Wildcats are starting to turn that around as their losses have caused the linemakers to become a little less bullish on their chances to blow out their opponents. Over their last six games, the Wildcats have covered the spread in four of them with the spread going off the board at 13 points or less in each game.
While the recent past and turnaround ATS is definitely a great sign, Kentucky still boasts a clear statistical edge over Mississippi State.
On offense, the team is shooting 47.3 percent on field goals and is averaging 77.6 PPG, just a smidge more than the Bulldogs. Defense is where they differentiate themselves.
Kentucky's defense is allowing only 66.8 PPG compared to the Bulldogs' 72.7. Look for the Wildcats to take advantage of Mississippi State's poor defense. Alex Poythress and Marcus Lee are each shooting north of 60 percent from the floor while four different players are scoring at least 10 PPG.
The team is led by freshman Jamal Murray with 17.3 PPG. He's scored 21 points in each of the team's last two games and continues to improve as the season progresses.
Sophomore Tyler Ulis is the team's second leading scorer. He's a beast in the backcourt despite a 5'9” stature. The second year player is leading the team in assists with 85 and steals with 21.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Outside of Kentucky's defensive edge, perhaps the biggest difference between these teams comes on the glass. The Wildcats are recording nearly five more rebounds per game and that advantage on the boards should give Kentucky a few more opportunities.
Overall, we've seen that the Wildcats can be beaten, but I don't see it happening against the Bulldogs at home. Kentucky has yet to drop a game at Rupp Arena all year long.
Look to Kentucky's recently improved ATS record, and provided the spread is reasonable as it has been in the Wildcats last several games, back the home team.
Kentucky 79, Mississippi State 67
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