Ben Simmons is the likely No. 1 pick in the NBA draft. Before that happens, he’ll try and lift LSU to the No. 1 spot in the SEC. The Tigers look to keep pace atop the conference standings and stay a step ahead of several teams when they host rebuilding Mississippi State.
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HOW THE MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Bulldogs are certainly a team of the future, but for Ben Howland’s club, the future is now. Mississippi State has an all freshman backcourt made up of top prospects Malik Newman and Quinndary Weatherspoon, and the two are quickly becoming the top players on the team.
Keeping the youngsters grounded is senior forward Gavin Ware. There might not be another player in the SEC more valuable to his team than Ware is to MSU. Not only is he one of the few post players on the roster, he’s also by far the best offensive player. He averages better than 16 points per game and tops the SEC with a 62.1 field goal percentage. Without him in the middle, the Bulldogs would have a much harder time running a four-guard lineup.
The Dogs run a four-guard lineup mainly because they have to. There is a noticeable lack of height on the roster and this poses a problem when they go against taller low-post players. Simmons definitely covers that and MSU will show a variety of different looks to try and slow him down. If they find one that works, the Bulldogs could make this a game.
HOW THE LSU TIGERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
For some unexplainable reason, the Tigers stayed away from feeding Simmons the basketball late in their loss to No. 1 Oklahoma last Saturday, a mistake that may have cost them the game. Simmons had just seven official field goal attempts against the Sooners, and while he made six of them, he produced just 14 points in a solid but unspectacular game.
It’s evident that LSU needs to feed Simmons and he needs to take more shots. The likely No. 1 pick in this year’s NBA draft attempted 12 field goals in the first half and 15 total against Auburn on Tuesday, and Auburn was defenseless to stop him. Simmons ended up with 21 and the Tigers picked up their fifth win in the last seven games.
Taking a closer look at the stats shows LSU is 13-4 when Simmons attempts eight shots or more. Better yet, the Tigers are 10-1 when he takes that many shots and knocks down at least half of them.
LSU didn’t have a letdown against Auburn, which was a possibility considering the Tigers just blew a chance to knock off the No.1 team in the country. The squad clearly is focused and has another conference win right in front of them.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
LSU was floundering at 7-5 through the non-conference portion of its schedule, wasting the only season Simmons would play at the PMAC. Once the SEC season opened, the Tigers turned it on. They are 7-3 since the start of league play with a pair of close road losses at Florida and Texas AM, and last week’s gut-wrenching loss to No. 1 Oklahoma. LSU is playing sparkling basketball and it’s not just Simmons supplying the punch. The spike in play coincided with the return of Tim Quarterman and Craig Victor to the lineup, and Simmons worked on his post play to become even more of a threat. Known more as a perimeter player when the season opened, Simmons embraced and improved his work down low. That expanded part of his game should create plenty of opportunities to score in the paint against a Mississippi State squad that lacks the size to contain him.
LSU 83, Mississippi State 73
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