The Northern Iowa Panthers aren't going to apologize to the rest of the teams sitting firmly on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. On Saturday, they were responsible for stealing a bid to the dance, as Wichita State won't end up with the Missouri Valley automatic slot after losing to the Panthers. Now, UNI is going to try to get a bid of its own to March Madness on Sunday in the MVC Final against the Evansville Purple Aces.
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HOW THE NORTHERN IOWA PANTHERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
When you look at Northern Iowa's players on the court, you don't see a particularly big team, a particularly fast team, or a team that does anything discernibly well.
Take Wes Washpun, for example. He's 6-foot-1 and weighs 175 pounds soaking wet. He's not a big guy, he's not a fantastic outside shooter, and he ends up having to guard against guys who are three or four inches bigger than him all the time.
What Washpun and the rest of the Panthers do though, is outwork you. If they do get into the field, they're going to be a team that no one wants to see in their draw. Washpun scored 20 points against a very stout Wichita State team on Saturday, and he's going to be the crucial offensive weapon in this one as well, especially if Evansville manages to crack the code of this defense.
It goes without saying that the Panthers need to ugly this game up as much as they can, because the more possessions there are and the fewer cheap points the Purple Aces get, the bigger the probability that UNI won't be able to keep up.
HOW THE EVANSVILLE PURPLE ACES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Purple Aces have played fantastic defense of late, keeping four straight foes to 56 points or fewer. What we haven't seen though, is their offense pan out the way that it should.
Evansville isn't going to out-Northern Iowa, Northern Iowa. Instead, the Purple Aces have to use the fact that the Panthers just played a slugfest against Wichita State to their advantage and try to make this game a little quicker than what we've seen of late. We know that Northern Iowa can't win a game of this magnitude in the 70s, but getting there is going to be a huge chore for Evansville.
D.J. Balentine needs to at least stay somewhere near to his scoring average of 20.5 points per game to win this one, but more important might be Egidijus Mockevicius. The Lithuanian hasn't been nearly as effective against UNI this year as you'd think considering how oversized he looks on the court, and after scoring just two points and bringing in five boards against Indiana State, he absolutely has to be significantly better than that in this one for the Aces to get to the dance.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Northern Iowa swept this regular season series, and we really think this is a bad matchup for the No. 2 seed in the Valley. Evansville is fantastic for sure, but it has to have the ability to run up and down the court in order to win. We just don't see that panning out in this game.
Frustration could end up setting in at some point for the Purple Aces at some point, and we've seen in the past that could lead to problems. If UNI starts to get the Scottrade Center crowd into the action and really locks in that aggressive half-court defense, this game could end up being too much for Evansville to handle.
Are we seeing the beginning of a magical run for the Panthers? Anything is possible in the madness of March.
Northern Iowa 66, Evansville 56
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