College Basketball Odds - NC State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels Game Preview

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A trip down Tobacco Road wouldn’t be complete with a matchup between these schools. One of the fiercest rivalries in not only the Atlantic Coast Conference but the entire country resumes when the North Carolina State Wolfpack visit the Dean Dome for an encounter with the North Carolina Tar Heels. You can throw out the records when these two hook up and the short distance of 25 miles that separates the two campuses only adds to the intensity.

This war on the floor will go down Saturday, January 7, 2017, at 8 p.m. ET at the Dean Smith Center. The game will be televised live on ESPN.

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It’s been a tough start to ACC play for the Tar Heels, but they escaped the opening week by splitting the first two games on the road. UNC followed up its shocking league-opening loss to Georgia Tech as a 17-point favorite by covering the spread in a hard-fought win at Clemson on Tuesday. The Heels had a cushy non-conference slate and padded their resume with wins over teams like Chattanooga, Long Beach State, Northern Iowa and Radford. It’s been a different story against stiffer competition and UNC is just 7-6-1 ATS overall this season.

NC State also split its opening conference pair and responded with a thrashing of No. 21 Virginia Tech at home after losing its opener by 18 at Miami. While the Wolfpack are unbeaten at home, they’ve struggled on the road with just a 2-3 SU and ATS record. In their two true road games, the Pack is 0-2 SU and ATS, falling by a combined 32 points to the Hurricanes and Illinois.

Key Stat

The ACC is built around offense and the Tar Heels are the best team in the conference at scoring the basketball. With Joel Berry II emerging from a mini slump, UNC outlasted Clemson on the road to pick up its first conference win of the season. The Tar Heels weren’t the most efficient in Tuesday’s win, but managed to persevere behind Berry II, Kennedy Meeks and Justin Jackson to score 89 points against a Clemson team that surrenders only 66 points per game.

The Wolfpack are prolific at scoring as well and are coming off their 104-78 win over the Hokies. NC State averages 84.5 points per outing but had that number bolstered by four 90-plus point home games. The difference will come down to the defensive side of the ball and UNC holds the edge. The Tar Heels are consistently one of the better defensive teams in the ACC and playing their first league game at home will make them that much better.

Player to Watch

NC State freshman phenom Dennis Smith Jr. is proving why he’s one of the most electrifying players in the ACC. Smith took the Wolfpack’s loss to Miami personally and responded by leading his club with just the second triple-double in program history in a thrashing of No. 21 Virginia Tech on Wednesday. Smith tallied 27 points along with 11 rebounds and 11 assists in the 104-78 romp that was never close.

For the season, Smith Jr. leads NC State in scoring and rebounding while playing stellar defense and adding a team-best 2.1 steals per game. He’s part of a youthful group in Raleigh that has the potential to finish in the top half of the conference standings. And that’s saying something considering how stacked the ACC is with seven teams ranked among the top 25. NC State isn’t one of those teams, but will be if they can upset the Tar Heels on the road.

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This is a rivalry in terms of geographic location and the Wolfpack will pull out the occasional victory to stir things up, but the Tar Heels have owned the series winning six of the past seven meetings. That one victory came two years ago with the Pack corralling a 58-46 win in Chapel Hill. I like what Mike Gottfried has going with his young group and NC State can be a surprise in the ACC, but the team has been inconsistent without a lot of success outside of Raleigh.

Smith Jr. will be a treat to watch, and Abdul-Malik Abu and Terry Henderson will provide some sort of hope. But in the end the Tar Heels at home with Berry II, Meeks, Justin Jackson and Isaiah Hicks providing a devastating inside-outside game will be too much for the Wolfpack to overcome. UNC doesn’t lose at home that often at home and they aren’t going to let the Wolfpack get out of town with a victory.

College Basketball Odds: North Carolina 74, North Carolina State 65

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