The Sun Belt Conference came up with a big upset in last year’s NCAA tournament after Arkansas Little Rock shocked Purdue as 8.5 point underdogs. If that we’re to occur this season, the Troy Trojans would likely ruin just about everyone’s bracket like MTSU did last season in beating Michigan State. While it’s another 15/2 match-up, the No. 2 this time around is a Duke Blue Devils squad that just caught fire to win the ACC tournament. There won’t be any huge moneyline ticket cash in this one, but a cover is certainly a possibility.
This war on the floor will go down Friday, March 17, 2017, at 7:20 p.m. ET at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena. The game will be televised live on TBS. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every NCAA tournament game on Friday’s college basketball schedule.
Odds at BookMaker.eu
Troy +18.5
Duke -18.5
Over/Under 153.5
The Dookies opened as 19 point favorites for this tilt fresh off a near escape of Notre Dame with the total lined at 152. Early action has actually gone the way of the Trojans knocking the pointspread down a half point to -18.5 even though 62 percent of the wagers taken are backing the Blue Devils. With each teams possessing offenses ranked amongst the top-60 in scoring, total bettors have moved the number to beat up to 153.5 even though nearly 60 percent of the bets written favor the under.
There’s some solid reverse line movement occurring with both the side and total in this matchup.
Player to Watch
Jordon Varnado – As the first-team all-Sun Belt sophomore goes, so go the Troy Trojans. With Duke possessing a myriad of scoring options in Luke Kennard and Grayson Allen just to name a few, it will be up to Varnado to lead the offense like he has all season with a team-high 16.5 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. Troy owned the Sun Belt’s best offensive attack, but it pales in comparison to what Duke will bring to the table. He’ll need an effort reminiscent to the 26 points he put forth against Georgia Southern to at the very least keep the Trojans competitive in this matchup.
Key Stat
29.5% - Duke doesn’t possess the greatest of defenses with it allowing nearly 70 points per game on 43.3 percent shooting from the floor, but one thing it does do well is defend the perimeter. It ranks No. 6 against the 3-ball at just under 30 percent and only allows an average of 5.0 made attempts per game. The Trojans were highly reliant upon Wesley Person Jr.’s long range accuracy to win the Sun Belt tourney as a six-seed. He knocked down seven of eight tries in the team’s huge 90-70 win over Georgia Southern, and another effort like that will be needed for Troy to get the Dookies on upset alert.
Free College Basketball ATS Pick
Save for its run through the ACC tournament, Duke was a major money burner for college basketball bettors this season. Take away the four covers last week, and Coach k’s kids went 11-18-1 against the spread. Troy didn’t go up against the toughest of opposition this season, but it brings a solid offensive attack with it into Greenville that can put points on the board both from long range and close to the rim. Duke had allowed an average of 78.4 points in its previous five games before holding the Fighting Irish to 69 in the finals. That’s right around the Trojans scoring average for the season, and if it can find a way to get close to it in this matchup, it should find a way to cover this bloated number.
College Basketball Odds: Duke 92, Troy 75
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