Baylor finished among the top teams in its conference and has many impressive wins on the season. The Bears spent a large chunk of the season in the top-5 nationally but fell off a bit down the stretch.
New México State captured the WAC conference tournament to advance to March Madness and now hopes to stay around awhile, but will be a double-digit underdog to Baylor.
This war on the floor will go down Friday, March 17, 2016, at 12:40 p.m. ET at the BOK Center in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The game will be televised live on truTV.
We'll have NCAA basketball odds available for this and every game on the college basketball Friday schedule.
College Basketball Odds
Baylor is listed as a 12-point favorite in this matchup, which seems about right for a matchup of a No. 3 against a No. 14. New México State will need to play really well to hang around in this one.
The Bears are 25-7 straight up and 14-15 against the spread. Baylor has played in five neutral court games on the year and has covered in three of them. The Bears are 10-13 against the spread as the favorite on the season.
New México State is 28-5 straight up and 6-2 against the spread. The Aggies have played in three games at a neutral site and has covered in two of them. New México State has only been an underdog once on the season and failed to cover.
Key Stat
62.7. That’s how many points per game this Baylor defense is allowing. Ian Baker and the rest of the New México State offense certainly have their work cut out for them in this one.
The Bears have size, talent and depth on both sides of the ball so it will definitely be an uphill battle for the Aggies as they attempt the upset. New México is young and comes into the tourney after winning the WAC Conference title, but without seeing a single ranked team all season.
The Aggies average 78.9 points per game on offense and are also a strong rebounding team, ranking 17th in the nation with 39.8 rebounds per game. They will need to use their edge in the paint to create more chances on offense against a defense this robust.
Player to Watch
Johnathan Motley -- Baylor’s junior forward is leading the team in points and rebounds this season, nearly averaging a double-double. Motley is putting up 17.3 points and 9.9 rebounds a game for the Bears heading into the NCAA tournament.
In the last five games, Motley recorded three double-doubles. He had 17 points and 17 rebounds in a recent win against Texas and also finished with 27 points and 11 rebounds against Iowa State on February 25th.
Baylor saw an early exit again in last year’s tournament, but Motley played well as a sophomore. He finished with 15 points and seven rebounds in the Bears’ first-round loss to Yale and will look to put up even bigger numbers this year as he tries to extend his team’s postseason stay.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
Baylor didn’t play very well down the stretch, and that will lead to concerns about its longevity in the Big Dance. However, that shouldn’t be a huge issue in the first round.
The Bears are superior to New México State, and their strong defense should wreak havoc on a team with inferior athletes. The Aggies did well to make it this far but won’t be wearing the Cinderella slipper in the first round.
Baylor will end its run of first-round failures with an easy victory over New México State.
College Basketball Odds: Baylor 79, New México State 63
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