The North Carolina Tar Heels were one of the favorites to win the national title before the Tournament began and with half of the top six contenders gone in the first weekend, have their chances improved? Fans in Chapel Hill would like to think so, but they got just as much satisfaction over their hated rival Duke being ousted in the second round. None of those expelled contenders played in the South, which is the only region to have its top four seeds advance, and the Tar Heels still have to get by the Butler Bulldogs.
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Odds at BookMaker.eu
Butler Bulldogs +7
North Carolina Tar Heels -7
Over/Under 153
Butler used losses to Seton Hall in the regular season finale and Xavier in the first round of the Big East Tournament as motivation for the Dance, knowing they could play better than what they showed in those games. While they weren’t overly impressive in their round one win over Winthrop, the Bulldogs won 76-64, covering the 11-point spread. Butler had a better all-around effort to defeat Middle Tennessee State 74-65 in the second round for a second straight cover win.
North Carolina jumped into the driver’s seat for the national title, but they have to escape the only region with all four top seeds advancing to the Sweet 16. The Tar Heels opened as a 7-point favorite and barely escaped the second round with a comeback 72-65 win over Arkansas as an 11.5-point fave. Facing some large spreads throughout the season, UNC was able to go 17-15-2 ATS.
Key Stat
North Carolina had one of the more efficient offenses in the country this season with backcourt players Joel Berry II and Justin Jackson leading the way. UNC put 103 on Texas Southern in its first round win, but struggled shooting the basketball against Arkansas in round two. That they were able to come away with a victory after trailing late in the game was a testament to the group of players.
But if the Tar Heels struggle from the floor against the active Bulldogs, this could be an upset. UNC scores 1.21 points per possession according to KenPom.com, the sixth-most efficient rating in the country and it’s hard to imagine this talented group having another poor shooting night like they did against Arkansas. Berry and Jackson combined to shoot 7 of 27 from the floor and the Tar Heels still won the game by seven points.
Player to Watch
North Carolina has an athletic front led by Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks and Theo Pinson, which could prove fatal to the Bulldogs if Andrew Chrabascz doesn’t play well. Chrabascz is part of a multi-dimensional offense that relies on spacing and ball movement and he provides that from his post position. He is a matchup headache with his size and ability to work the floor, but he’s giving up several inches to the bigger Tar Heels.
On top of his offensive production as Butler’s second leading scorer, Chrabascz is also a steady defender on a team that plays stingy on that end of the floor. He was responsible for keeping Conference USA player of the year JaCorey Williams in check during the round two win over MTSU. The Bulldogs will need to be efficient offensively with a size discrepancy in the paint and Chrabascz can open the floor by knocking down some shots from distance.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
North Carolina got its bad game out of the way and that means trouble for Butler. As much as I like the Bulldogs and the way they play the game, I just can’t see them beating a team as talented as the Tar Heels. And I can’t imagine Berry and Jackson both having off nights shooting the basketball, no matter how good Butler’s defense is.
And if the two backcourt players continue to struggle, the Tar Heels will simply feed the ball to either Meeks, Hicks or Pinson, who have a size and talent advantage down low. I do like Butler to keep this one close, however, covering the 7-point spread, but it’s the Tar Heels moving on.
College Basketball Odds: North Carolina 77, Butler 75
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