Even the best teams in the NCAA Tournament need to catch a few breaks to become national champions. If the Gonzaga Bulldogs go on to win the title, we can look back on their second round victory over Northwestern as the game where they got a big break. Officials failed to call a goaltending on the Zags late in the second half in game where they let a 22-point lead dwindle to five. The Bulldogs had the lead and may have won the game, but they should feel grateful that they are playing West Virginia in the Sweet 16.
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You couldn’t have scripted the start to West Virginia’s second round win over Notre Dame any better. The Mountaineers jumped out to a quick double-digit lead, kept pounding away offensively and never allowed the Irish to get going with its frenetic defense. The result was a convincing 83-71 cover victory that gave WVU a trip to the Sweet 16. The Mountaineers will head to San Jose as an underdog against the region’s top seed Gonzaga, but if they play the way they did against a quality Notre Dame squad, WVU could advance even farther.
The spreads are shrinking for the Bulldogs and they’ve yet to cover in the NCAA Tournament. The Zags opened with a 66-46 win over South Dakota State as a 23-point favorite. They escaped Saturday with a 79-73 win over Northwestern as a 10.5-point favorite. Gonzaga will be favored by a few points when they tangle with West Virginia in their Sweet 16 matchup and, despite their two losses in the Tournament, are a healthy 22-9-1 ATS this season. The Zags were 3-0 SU against Tournament teams Arizona, Iowa State and Florida while going 2-1 ATS in those contests.
Key Stat
The Mountaineers didn’t get the nickname “Press” Virginia for nothing. WVU once again leads the country in turnovers forced with better than 20 per game, and sometimes it isn’t the number of turnovers caused that makes them so special. The Mountaineers forced the Irish into 14 miscues, which was well below their season average. But it was the constant pressure that rattled Notre Dame, turning one of the more sure-handed teams into a sloppy mess.
The Irish had gone nine straight games without a double-digit turnover total, yet they turned the ball over 10 times in the first half. WVU used the mistakes to build a lead at the intermission and never let up. Gonzaga does a nice job of handling the basketball and has three competent ball-handlers to handle the pressure. WVU must be active and disrupt as much as possible because the Zags don’t turn the ball over that often.
Player to Watch
One way to beat pressure defense is to have active post players. The Zags have a few, but Przemek Karnowski is the one that makes the offense work. At 7’1” and around three bills, Karnowski is a load, and he’s a damn good basketball player. He’s the team’s second leading scorer and with him up front that’s a mismatch that favors Gonzaga.
Karnowski scored only nine points against Northwestern, but his presence opens up other avenues. He’s an underrated passer and he defends the basket like it’s his last meal. Backcourt play will be the main narrative in this one, but Karnowski will own the paint and that could be the deciding factor.
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Gonzaga had problems with Northwestern’s pressure in the second half on Saturday and nearly lost a big lead. Hopefully they learned something from that because they will face the best pressure defense in the land on Thursday. Still, the Zags have superior depth and balance that has carried them all season and that won’t change in the next round.
Nigel Williams-Goss, Jordan Mathews and Josh Perkins are all competent ball-handlers and the pressure delivered by West Virginia is less effective when multiple players can handle the ball. Gonzaga is a smart bunch and they’ve been very good at taking care of the basketball. They’re also an underrated group of defenders and will make life tough on the Mountaineers to score points. The Zags are a well-rounded group and I can see this team in the Final Four.
College Basketball Odds: Gonzaga 67, West Virginia 59
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