Running through the Big Ten Tournament after what they went through, the Michigan Wolverines were a great story entering the NCAA’s. After taking down No. 2 Louisville in the second round on Sunday, the Wolverines could now be considered a serious contender for the national title. The No. 3 seed Oregon Ducks avoided the upset with a second round comeback victory over spunky Rhode Island and now must deal with the darlings of the Tournament.
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Not knowing if they would even compete in the Big Ten Tournament after their plane slid off the runaway the day before heading to D.C., the Wolverines not only captured the title, they’ve had an improbable run into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. A month ago they were playing for their Tournament life, now they’re playing for a trip to the Elite Eight. The Wolverines are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and have shown they can win a variety of ways.
After winning their first round matchup with Iona by 16 points, the Ducks were in a much closer game on Sunday and needed their star players to rise to the occasion. Tyler Dorsey and Dillon Brooks did just that. The two combined for 46 of Oregon’s points in the 75-72 win as the Ducks cashed the over for the fourth straight game and for the sixth time in their last seven. Oregon will likely be a slight favorite but they’re catching a Michigan team that’s playing like it has nothing to lose.
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The Wolverines’ late season run was spurred by a barrage of three-pointers. John Beilein went with a four guard lineup and the guys knocked down shots from distance at an alarming rate. However, Michigan’s ability to adapt against Louisville is what led them to the upset win. After knocking down a record 16 three-pointers in their first round win over Oklahoma State, the Wolverines faced a stiff Louisville defense. Instead of winning from beyond the arc, they won the game in the paint, thanks to Mo Wagner.
Often overlooked in a lineup that includes Derrick Walton Jr. and Zak Irvin, Wagner had a career night working the paint against the Cards stingy defense. Michigan made only six three-pointers, but with Wagner scoring 26 points on 11 of 14 shooting, with most of those baskets right at the rim, Michigan didn’t need to drain from distance. Oregon is without Chris Boucher and the interior defense has been weakened. Wagner will be a threat down low and if the Ducks collapse, he can dish to an open teammate for a better look.
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The Ducks knew the loss of Boucher was going to hurt and it almost cost them in the second round. Oregon failed to corral defensive rebounds while the smaller Rams crashed the offensive glass to create additional opportunities. And the defense on the interior was inferior. Despite making just 6 of 22 triples, Rhode Island shot 51 percent from the field.
That’s an area where Boucher was at his best. He not only snared rebounds, he blocked 2.5 shots per game and altered shots with his presence. Michigan won’t be afraid to challenge the middle of the Oregon’s defense without Boucher, and that could cause problems.
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The Ducks were pushed to the limit by Rhode Island and responded with their best players being the best players. Dorsey and Brooks were nearly unstoppable and led a dramatic comeback with Dorsey hitting the eventual game-winning three-point basket. Their depth was hurt when Boucher went down, but the Ducks were challenged by Dana Altman to cover for their big man. Jordan Bell hauled down a dozen rebounds and had two blocks in the URI game, picking up the slack in the middle
The teams are evenly matched in the backcourt so the outcome will hinge on the play in the block and the reserve corps. Oregon still has the deeper team and more options offensively, and that will eventually decide this one. Michigan had a magnificent run and is a nice story, but the Wolverines were still a middle of the pack team from an overrated conference. I think their run ends with a thud.
College Basketball Odds: Oregon 82, Michigan 74
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