The South Carolina Gamecocks pulled off a big upset in the second round knocking off Duke, the favorite of many to get to Glendale. But was it really that big of an upset? South Carolina was one of the better teams in the SEC for most of the season until a late swoon knocked them down a few pegs and completely out of the national rankings. Maybe the Gamecocks just needed a bigger stage. If that’s the case, they are now on the biggest as they make their first Sweet 16 appearance and face the Baylor Bears.
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South Carolina Gamecocks +3
Baylor Bears -3
Over/Under 137
Not many saw this coming after the Gamecocks lost five of their final eight regular season games and tiptoed through the SEC Tournament opener in a 64-53 loss to Alabama. Over that span South Carolina was 3-6 SU and just 1-8 ATS, not giving its fans much hope of a tournament run that would ultimately bring them their first Sweet 16. But the NCAA Tournament has awakened the Gamecocks, who blasted Marquette in the opener and upset Duke as a 6.5-point pup in the second round. They covered both games and did it with offensive firepower not seen before. South Carolina scorched Duke for 65 second half points, which is more than the Gamecocks scored in 10 full games during the year.
Baylor was pegged as an early 3-point favorite and is the highest remaining seed in the East Region after Duke and Villanova both fell in the second round. But as we’ve seen, being a top seed is meaningless, especially to the Gamecocks, who flattened Duke on Sunday. The Bears may have had the easiest path to the Sweet 16 by knocking off a couple of double-digit seeds in an overmatched New Mexico State and USC. They covered the 11.5-point line against the Aggies and struggled against the Trojans, who many felt were lucky to even make the Tournament.
Key Stat
The Bears crashed the glass against USC, outrebounding the Trojans 34-23, and they were effective on the offensive end with 14 offensive rebounds. The dominance led to several easy put backs and allowed them to attempt six more field goals, which offset the Trojans’ higher percentage.
Baylor ranks second in the country in rebound differential and their ability to keep the Gamecocks from second and third opportunities will seriously cripple South Carolina’s ability to score enough points to win this game. The Gamecocks did a nice job on the glass against Duke, however facing a Baylor team that lives on rebounding will be another story. Johnathan Motley grabbed 10 boards against the Trojans with six coming on the offensive end and he’s a force the Gamecocks need to be aware of.
Player to Watch
When Sindarius Thornwell is shooting well and scoring the basketball, the Gamecocks can be a handful. Just ask Duke. South Carolina has been stingy defensively all season, allowing 65 points per game while holding opponents to 40 percent shooting from the floor and 30 percent from beyond the arc. But offensive struggles prevented them from an even better record.
That’s where Thornwell comes in. The team’s leading scorer went for 29 in the win over Marquette and he led a second half surge that obliterated Duke. He scored 24 points on 6 of 14 shooting and hit half of his six three-pointers to lead the way. His drives to the hoop left the Dookies reaching and Thornwell made 12 trips to the free throw line where he hit nine attempts.
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The East is wide open now thanks to South Carolina and Wisconsin, who knocked off the top two seeds in the region in the second round. Baylor is the highest remaining seed and probably feels a bit lucky that their path to the Final Four just got a little easier. But taking the Gamecocks for granted would be a huge mistake and something Scott Drew isn’t going to let his club do.
The pressure is off the Bears with the Gamecocks and Badgers getting all the ink entering the Sweet 16. It’s more fun to talk about the underdogs succeeding in the Tournament than it is to discuss the favorites. And just how much does the win over Duke affect the Gamecocks? Sure, they’re a confident group, but they still lack a serious scoring punch and the Bears have slowed down some of the best with their pressure. They do it again for a trip to the elite Eight.
College Basketball Odds: Baylor 81, South Carolina 75
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