They needed a win against the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament to keep an impressive streak alive and the Wisconsin Badgers got it. Their upset of Villanova gave the Badgers their fourth straight Sweet 16 trip, something no other team has done. The Badgers would like to change the end result, however. They lost in the Final Four the first two years and were bounced in this round last season. The streak doesn’t faze the Florida Gators, who are in after embarrassing Virginia in the second round.
This war on the floor will go down Friday, March 24, 2017, at 9:59 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden. The game will be televised live on TBS. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball Friday schedule.
Odds at BookMaker.eu
Wisconsin Badgers +2
Florida Gators -2
Over/Under 131
The smart money should be on Wisconsin after the Badgers knocked off the No.1 overall seed Villanova in the second round. A late season slide may have actually helped the Badgers. Losing five of six regular season games before closing with a win over Minnesota apparently stuck in the mind of some committee members. A run to the Big Ten Tournament title game didn’t do enough to improve their seeding and the Badgers entered the Dance as a No. 8 seed. It’s hard to imagine them as an eight when Minnesota was given a five. But it’s worked out to this point.
Following their play in the second round win over Virginia, the Gators opened as a slight 2-point favorite. The Cavs have never been mistaken for an offensive juggernaut, but what happened on Saturday bordered on ridiculous. Florida is a good defensive team, but holding a team to less than a point a minute is nearly unheard of. Hopefully the Gators are able to get motivated for their Sweet 16 matchup after destroying UVA 65-39. Florida has played below the closing total in each of its three postseason games and the under is 9-3 in its last 12 overall.
Key Stat
Florida had one of the nation’s better defensive units prior to its game with Virginia, and the Gators were off the charts in its second round victory. Virginia isn’t the most explosive team and shutting down London Perrantes was pretty much all the Gators had to do to win the game. They did that and more, holding the Cavs to 17 first half points and 29.6 percent shooting for the game.
The Gators rank third in defensive efficiency according to KenPom.com, giving up 88.8 points per 100 possessions. That number has improved over two games of the NCAA Tournament. Florida allowed just 0.65 points per possession to Virginia. Wisconsin has more scoring options than Virginia and it will be a chore for the Gators to shut the Badgers down. But their length and athleticism should be enough to disrupt Wisconsin’s flow, allowing the Gators to stay in the game.
Player to Watch
The Gators are excellent at pressuring the ball and Wisconsin’s Bronson Koenig will be tasked with breaking down the defense. The senior has led the club all season and has continued to do so in the Tournament. Koenig drained a school-record eight three-pointers and scored 28 points in the first round win over Virginia Tech. The Badgers will need more of the same on Friday.
In the win over Villanova Koenig was a steady force against the Wildcats pressure. Limited due to foul trouble, Koenig played just 27 minutes, but was clutch when it mattered. He scored 17 points and hit half of his six three-pointers. He has the ability to take over a game and makes his teammates better when he’s on the floor. Staying out of foul trouble is a must against the Gators, however.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
You could say the Gators are playing the best basketball of any team in the Tournament and you would probably be right. They had a complete effort against Virginia and looked like a team that could play for a national title. But Wisconsin has a group of seniors that are tournament-tested and pretty good. With Koenig, Ethan Happ and Nigel Hayes, the Badgers can play any style of game and do it well.
The Badgers need to keep the game close and if they do, the outcome swings in their favor. Wisconsin is 5-2 in tournament games decided by three points or fewer. And they have the momentum of knocking off the No. 1 overall seed in the second round. And while all the talk is of the Florida defense and how it stifled Virginia, the Badgers are an excellent defensive club as well. And that will be the difference as the Badgers advance with a close victory.
College Basketball Odds: Wisconsin 74, Florida 71
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