This Big Monday tilt between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Virginia Cavaliers would have had a bit more luster to it had the Wahoos not gone on an end of season swoon never before seen under Tony Bennett’s watch since making the move to Charlottesville. Be that as it may, the Cavs will no doubt take to their home hardwood determined to avenge the ugly beating they absorbed to the Heels nearly 10 days ago in Chapel Hill.
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The book on Roy Williams’ Tar Heels this season has been to back them when in the comforts of the Dean Dome and fade away when they hit the highway. UNC has covered 10 of its 14 lined home games, but checks in a bankroll bursting 2-7 against the spread when in the role of visitor. They played true to form last time out at home against Louisville whom they pulled away from in the second half to pull out the 74-63 win and cover as 7.5 point favorites. Pittsburgh is first up on Saturday before heading to UVA.
The losing streak reached four straight both straight up and against the spread for London Perrantes and his mates last time out at home against Miami. In a game that set offenses back 20 years, the Cavaliers shot a woeful 31.4 percent from the field and connected on just 3 of 12 shots from long range. It connected on just 16 of 51 shot attempts, and because of it, fell to 1-5 against the spread in its last six games. Virginia stands 10-4 straight up and 6-6 against the spread as a host.
Key Stat
46.6% - The Wahoos sport the nation’s No. 1 ranked scoring defense and No. 21 ranked field goal percentage defense. While the 65 points scored were the Tar Heels second lowest output of the season, they still converted on a whopping 46.6 percent of their shots from the field in the rival’s first meeting. Virginia simply doesn’t have the offense to keep up with an efficient attack like that. If unable to force a number of misfires in the rematch, the Cavaliers could be staring at a sixth straight defeat should they not find a way to come out of Raleigh with a win.
Revenge Angle
As good as Virginia has been the last five seasons, North Carolina has had its number. The Tar Heels have won three of the last four overall skirmishes as well as six of the last 10. It has however had its fair share of issues when making the trip to Charlottesville where UNC has fallen in three straight visits and failed to cover the closing pointspread five straight times. If ever there was a spot the Wahoos were to rise to the occasion and hand the current ACC leaders a huge loss, this is it.
Free College Basketball ATS Pick
Over its last eight played games, Virginia has fallen to Villanova by two, Syracuse by four, Virginia Tech by two, Duke by 10, UNC by 24 and Miami by six. Its lone wins during that stretch came against the Hokies and a Louisville squad that was without Quentin Snider, Deng Adel and Mangok Mathiang. Not the greatest of resumes to make yourself feel good about how you stand going into tourney time.
A quick remedy to that would be defeating the league leader on their home floor in front of a nationally televised audience. The big three of Justin Jackson, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks dominated Virginia’s defense in the first go round. I expect Bennett and his staff to have cooked something up to better contain them this time around. UVA hasn’t been dogged in its own house since 2012. I don’t expect them to take kindly to seeing that streak get snapped in this one.
College Basketball Odds: Virginia 64, North Carolina 61
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