It’s almost unfathomable that the Wake Forest Demon Deacons have lost 25 straight ACC road games. The last time Wake Forest emerged victorious on the road in conference play was all the way back on January 22, 2014 when it knocked off Virginia Tech. The Demon Deacons’ inability to win on the road has underscored this program’s inability to get back to the postseason or even crack the .500 mark. Fortunately, Wake Forest will be at home for this game when it welcomes the North Carolina Tar Heels to Winston-Salem.
Don’t miss the hardwood action from Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum at 7 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 11, 2017. Catch every moment of the game live on ESPN2. We will have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball Wednesday schedule.
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Although the Tar Heels have looked vulnerable over the last month or so of action, they are still covering games at a pretty impressive rate. North Carolina is 4-1 ATS over its last five and only one of those wins was even close to the spread, a three-point overtime victory at Clemson. The Tar Heels hammered their in-state rival Wolfpack over the weekend by 51 points and are hoping that the victory was a sign that their fortunes were changing.
Wake Forest has shown it can knock off some of the best teams in the conference on its home court despite the abysmal road record over the past three years. The Demon Deacons have defeated North Carolina, Duke, Miami, North Carolina State, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh on their home floor during this stretch and shouldn’t be taken lightly. However, they have yet to cover a conference game with an 0-4 ATS mark thus far.
Player to Watch
If Wake Forest is going to have any chance in this one, it needs a great performance from its best player, John Collins. Collins is a godsend on a team that is hitting just 44.1 percent of its field goal attempts this season, as the big forward is knocking down 58.7 percent of his shots and is leading the team in scoring with 16.4 PPG. He is also the best rebounder the team has with 9.3 RPG, three more than the second-leading rebounder on the squad.
Collins has to stay on the floor against a North Carolina team with a lot of talented big men. He has come close to fouling out in three of his last five games, and his early foul trouble against Florida State two weeks ago put Wake Forest in a bad position. If he picks up early fouls here, North Carolina’s big men are going to dominate Wake Forest.
Key Stat
Rebounding, rebounding, rebounding. Whenever you read about North Carolina, rebounding always has to be one of the first things discussed. The Tar Heels ability to dominate the glass like no other team in college basketball makes them extremely difficult to beat. Even if UNC turns the ball over often, like it did against Clemson, its rebounding advantage gives them more possessions than its opponent and more often than not factors into the victory.
The Tar Heels are pulling down 45.8 rebounds a night and due to their size across the floor it’s not just one guy doing a disproportionate amount of work. Only one rotation player averages less than 3.5 RPG and the ability of the guards to rebound means that an opponent is going to either need to play great defense or force turnovers to knock off UNC.
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North Carolina will likely be a double-digit favorite here. The Tar Heels have only been underdogs once this season, to Kentucky, and now have Theo Pinson back in the lineup. Although UNC is going to win the game, Collins will play well enough and get the support he needs for Wake to cover.
College Basketball Odds: North Carolina 83, Wake Forest 71
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