Traditionally, the last game of the regular season for the North Carolina Tar Heels and Duke Blue Devils comes against each other. That's the case once again this year, and it might end up being one of the trickiest games to handicap on the crowded Saturday slate.
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HOW THE NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
UNC has been forced to slow down just a bit in recent games. The Tar Heels, who average 83.1 points per game, haven't topped 80 in three straight. They got a good defensive showing at N.C. State to walk away with a relatively easy win, but the lack of offense cost them in a loss at Virginia and darn near cost them at home against Syracuse in a game which ended up being much closer than it should've been.
North Carolina was bogged down in the second half against Duke as well back in February at home, scoring just 27 points. The team didn't hit a single three-point shot in the second half and went just 1-of-13 from deep.
Granted, the Heels make their offense with their bigs, but Marcus Paige can't go 2-for-10 again and 0-for-6 from beyond the arc if there's a hope for getting this win at Cameron Indoor.
HOW THE DUKE BLUE DEVILS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
It's amazing to think that the Blue Devils were able to pull off that game in Chapel Hill on a night that Matt Jones got hurt early on, essentially limiting the roster to just five men for the whole evening.
We know that Duke is going to lose the battle on the glass in this game after getting romped 44-29 in the first meeting in that category, but the great equalizer is going to have to come from beyond the arc.
Luke Kennard shocked by coming off the bench to knock down three triples, and he and his mates are going to have to have that same type of game in this one to have a shot at the season sweep.
Only turning the ball over six times again as was the case in Chapel Hill would surely help Duke's cause.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Blue Devils were statistically dominated in the first matchup of the year, and though they were clearly a bit lucky to get out of town with a win, they do have some things going for them in this game. They're back at home where they've suddenly won five games in a row after a mid-January swoon, and Jones is healthy and should be ready to contribute his standard 30+ minutes.
However, we still aren't totally buying what the Dookies are selling. They weren't impressive against Wake Forest, looked horrible against Pitt and lost to Louisville soundly right after beating the Tar Heels. They haven't topped 80 points in a game since February 6 either, and as a result, their last seven games have combined to go under the closing number.
If Duke can't get in the 80s in this one, we think it'll end up getting beaten by a North Carolina team with its sights set on revenge and at least a share of the regular season ACC title.
North Carolina 82, Duke 76
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