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Coach K is back and it looks like the Duke Blue Devils are too. Following an uncharacteristic stretch where they lost three of four, the Blue Devils are trending up with their coach on the bench and a roster of players that is getting healthy. And that’s not good news for the North Carolina Tar Heels, who have a slim lead at the top of the ACC standings. But the fierce rivalry always brings out the best in the teams and the first meeting of the season should be no different.
This war on the floor will go down Thursday, February 9, 2017, at 8 p.m. ET at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The game will be televised live on ESPN. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball Thursday schedule.
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After getting thumped at Miami last week, the Tar Heels used a two-game home stand to get better. They knocked off Pitt and Notre Dame in a rescheduled contest, but the victories were much closer than expected. UNC beat the Panthers 80-78 as a 19-point favorite and failed to cover as 9-point chalk in an 83-76 win over the Irish. The Tar Heels are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall and 1-4 ATS in their five conference road games. UNC ended a four-game losing streak to Duke with a 76-72 win in Cameron last March as a 2.5-point pup.
Duke welcomed Coach K back to the sideline and responded with a 72-64 win over Pitt to extend its winning streak to three straight. The run started on the road with a narrow two-point victory over Wake Forest and an upset over favored Notre Dame last week. The Blue Devils went 1-2 ATS in that run. With their coach on the shelf, the Blue Devils went 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS, but they had their coach and a full complement of players able to play for the first time this season and squeaked by Pitt as a 16-point favorite.
Last Meeting
This rivalry is unmatched in college basketball. It’s not just that the schools are so close to each other, it also helps to increase the intensity when both teams are consistently good. And that’s been the case for what seems like forever. Once again both teams will enter with a national ranking, just like they did last March when the Tar Heels invaded Durham and won the ACC regular season title with a 76-72 win in Cameron, snapping a three-game losing streak at Duke’s iconic home arena.
UNC owned the glass in that game, outrebounding Duke 64-29. The Heels had nearly as many offensive rebounds (23) as the Dookies had total (26). That could be an issue again as Duke relies on a four-guard lineup and rarely plays its post players.
Key Stat
One way to prevent an opponent from winning the rebound battle is to make a majority of shots. Even then it doesn’t guarantee a favorable outcome in that area. Duke likes to play small and uses its guards and swing players to account for most of the offense. UNC has more of a traditional lineup and uses the frontcourt of Isaiah Hicks, Kennedy Meeks and Tony Bradley to own the inside game.
The Tar Heels lead the nation in rebound margin and increased that differential with a 44-25 advantage on the glass against a smaller Notre Dame squad. Much like the Irish, the Blue Devils use a rotation of smaller players hoping to create mismatches. But UNC’s trio can play and defend, which makes it tough for teams to penetrate and have success playing a small-ball style.
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Duke has its roster intact for the first time all season and Coach K has returned to his chair on the bench. But that doesn’t mean the Blue Devils are ready to make a run. The club has shown plenty of weaknesses this season and one is a lack of depth. Krzyzewski used just six players in the second half of Saturday’s win over Pitt and two played the entire 40 minutes.
That won’t work against the Tar Heels, who wear down opponents with their size and ability to play an inside-out game when not running the fast break. Anything goes in this rivalry matchup and the emotions will hit the roof. The Cameron Crazies will definitely spark the home team, but in the end, the Tar Heels have more depth and inside talent and will come away with a narrow road victory.
College Basketball Odds: North Carolina 77, Duke 72
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