After hosting Clemson and Georgia Tech on Wednesday and Saturday, the Tar Heels hit the road in just their third true road game of the season to take on the Seminoles in Tallahassee. North Carolina is 0-2 SU and ATS in true road games to date.
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HOW THE NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Ranked No. 5 in the nation, the Tar Heels have won two of their last three and four of their last seven ATS and are amongst the best offensive teams.
UNC is averaging 87.1 PPG and will be running up against a team that’s struggled on defense, ranking No. 185 in field goal percentage against and No. 248 in 3-point percentage against.
The Tar Heels have four active players with at least 11.8 PPG and add Isiah Hicks and Nate Britt to the batch for depth, both with 9.2 and 8.1 PPG respectively and less than 20 minutes per game each.
Brice Johnson and Justin Jackson are the big men inside. Johnson collects 9.7 RPG and leads the team in most categories including those rebounds. He’s tops in scoring with 16.2 PPG and blocks with 12. He’s reached double-digit points in every game this NCAAB season and has seven double-doubles. He’s also shooting 66.2 percent from the floor.
Jackson isn’t quite as prolific of a player as Johnson, but he’s averaging 13.5 PPG and has scored at least a dozen in five of his last six games. He also has some upside in scoring with three straight games of 21 or more points dating back to November.
On the perimeter, guard Marcus Paige has added 14.6 PPG while Joel Berry II is a strong passer with 57 assists. He also adds 19 steals.
HOW THE FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Seminoles took Iowa into overtime before losing 78-75, but covered the 5.5-point spread in their first game as an underdog so far this season. They then went into Gainesville and shocked the Gators as 6-point pups Tuesday night.
Kennedy Meeks should remain on the sideline on Monday for the Tar Heels. The veteran forward is an important part of North Carolina’s frontcourt presence given his 12.3 PPG and 7.4 RPG.
The Seminoles’ defense may be lacking, but offensively they’re averaging 82.9 PPG and shooting 47.6 percent from the floor.
For Florida State to cover, Boris Bojanovsky needs to be a big part of the game script. The 7’3” center has the height and wingspan to cause havoc for Jackson and Johnson in the post and can help dominate on the glass.
Otherwise, the Seminoles will need to win with agility with Malik Beasley and Dwayne Bacon leading the way. Beasley and Bacon go for 17.3 and 17.2 PPG respectively.
Beasley is a bit more stable with at least 11 points in all 11 games. Bacon has had a couple clunkers, but he’s also produced 20 or more in three straight games and is on top of his game after producing his first double-double of the year against Charleston Southern on December 21.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Beasley and Bacon could provide a nice challenge for UNC on the outside. North Carolina has allowed its share of points and FSU should put some up.
Still, the Johnson and Jackson duo should account for more. The Seminoles don’t have much of an answer down low and while Bojanovsky looks intimidating based on his size, he’s performance hasn’t matched to date.
North Carolina 87, Florida State 74
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