If the North Carolina Tar Heels can take out the Louisville Cardinals on Monday, they'll very likely have a two-game lead in the ACC at the halfway point of the conference schedule.
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HOW THE NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Tar Heels haven't lost since December 12, but they haven't exactly been playing up to their fullest potential either. They've failed to cover their last three games as double-digit favorites, and they're actually just 1-7 ATS in their last eight when they're giving more than eight points.
The good news is that UNC has really played to the level of its competition this year, especially away from Chapel Hill. Games against Syracuse and Florida State, two of the better teams in the ACC both resulted in double-digit impressive victories, and the Heels also went to a neutral site and knocked off UCLA earlier in the campaign.
Still, point guard play is going to be crucial. We love Marcus Paige and think that he's going to be the reason the Tar Heels are in the Final Four in March. That said, he's not in great form right now and really needs to change that to help the rest of this offense. The UNC offense goes as Paige goes, not just as a scorer, but as a distributor as well. If Paige isn't on his game as has been the case in his last four when he's averaged just 3.8 points and 5.0 assists per game, the Heels are going to be in a lot of trouble.
HOW THE LOUISVILLE CARDINALS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
This is a really tough stretch of games for the Cardinals. They're going to be at home this weekend as well as on Monday, but playing against Virginia and North Carolina in a span of just 48 hours is really tough. You'll want to pay close attention to Saturday's game for sure, knowing that there's a real chance the Hoos wear out the Cards, something that could be really bad news against the Tar Heels, one of the fastest running teams in America.
Louisville certainly can win a game in which it runs up and down the floor, but it's going to be much better served trying to win this game in the half court. Chinanu Onuaku has played fantastic ball defensively with Mangok Mathiang out of the fold injured, while Damion Lee and Trey Lewis continue to play well defensively in the backcourt.
Defense is clearly going to win or lose this NCAAB game for the Cards.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Tar Heels have been living a little dangerously in recent weeks, and we think they're going to finally get bitten in this one. The Cardinals have been really close to a lot of big wins, some of which they gotten, and others of which they've come up just short. This is a battle-tested team which is ready to fight for its spot atop the ACC, and we think this will be a big time game for Louisville, win or lose against Virginia prior to that.
Expect to see the Tar Heels stymied just a bit at times offensively, and Louisville will be able to just enough to take advantage of the situation once and for all to claim that scalp over a Top 10 team.
Louisville 75, North Carolina 72
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