After a nine-game hiatus Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim will be back on the sideline for the first time since Dec. 5. The Orange will need more than just their 71-year-old coach to knock off North Carolina. The preseason ACC favorites remain a top contender with an offense that can light up the scoreboard.
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HOW THE NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Monday night's 106-90 win over Florida State speaks to the fact that the 2015-16 Tar Heels are a different team than some we've recently seen. When Marcus Paige drops 30 points in an ACC road game, it's a big deal. But against Florida State, Paige had probably the quietest 30-point game imaginable.
That's because his roommate of four years, Brice Johnson just turned in a 39-point, 23-rebound performance that had only been done twice in UNC history, making Paige's effort just an afterthought.
With Johnson seemingly taking the next step forward in his game, the No. 6 Tar Heels boast the No. 1 offense in the country, according to KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric. The old school analytic has UNC fifth in the nation in points per game with 87.8 per outing.
Based on KenPom's offensive rating statistic, the UNC has three of the top 15 players in the nation. Paige is third with a rating of 141.1, Isaiah Hicks is eighth with a 136.2 rating and Johnson is 11th with a rating of 135.1. The Tar Heels also have three players - Paige, Nate Britt and Theo Pinson - shooting the ball better than 40 percent from three-point distance - a huge difference from last season's efforts behind the arc.
But the biggest difference-maker in coach Roy Williams' offense has been Johnson, who leads the team with 268 points and has accounted for about 19 percent of the team's total scoring, while being on the court for about 13 percent of the team's total minutes.
HOW THE SYRACUSE ORANGE CAN COVER THE SPREAD
It wasn't pretty for Syracuse while bench boss Jim Boeheim was on ice since Dec. 5 as part of the NCAA's sanctions for those rules violations. The Orange went 4-5 overall, 0-3 in ACC confrontations and lost to Georgetown, who was dumped by Radford, and to St. John's, that would be throttled by Incarnate Word.
That changes Saturday when the legendary coach is back on the Orange bench to direct his club. In his absence, Syracuse - a tad shy in talent, and depth and experience and health - shot 41.5 percent overall from the field and 32.3 percent from behind the arc. They also committed 89 turnovers, missed 62 free throws and out-rebounded only Cornell, Montana State and Texas Southern.
With that said, it likely doesn't look good for the Orange on Saturday. But the man who has led the program for 40 years is back and the Orange will be battling the sixth-ranked Tar Heels in front of over 25,000 rabid fans at the Carrier Dome. That should be worth something.
Syracuse must take care of the basketball and make a higher percentage of its shots to have any chance against the Tar Heels. Michael Gbinije, the team's leading scorer, has struggled and has to be the man for the Orange. He's scored in double figures every game and has the ability to stretch the defense by launching threes.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Having their coach back and playing a highly-ranked opponent in front of over 25,000 fans won't be enough to lift Syracuse in this one. The Tar Heels are more talented and with Paige having overcome his early season injury woes, UNC could be much more than just a contender in the ACC. The emergence of Johnson has taken a burden away from Paige and the others contribute in so many ways that just aren't noticeable on the stat sheet. Having Boeheim back in the coaching box will be a boost for the Orange, but their problems on the court: no low-post defense, poor shooting and lack of depth is too much to overcome against a quality opponent.
North Carolina 84, Syracuse 68
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