No. 3 North Carolina hits the road to Austin to hoop it up with Texas. North Carolina is 6-1 but the lone loss was in its only true road game at Northern Iowa. The Longhorns are going through early season adjustments and struggling in the learning process of a new system under coach Shaka Smart. This is a very tough opponent to match-up against as Texas may be forced to slow it down to stay close.
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HOW THE NORTH CAROLINA TAR HELS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
North Carolina has scored at least 78 points in all games except its road contest at Northern Iowa when it fell 71-67 as decided chalk. That includes an 89-81 victory against No. 2 Maryland on December 1 when senior guard Marcus Paige made his season debut following recovery from a broken hand.
He scored 20 points and his impact and efficiency will lead the Tar Heels to plenty of scoring against a Longhorns defense that is among the nation’s worst at keeping opponents off the offensive glass. North Carolina ranks No. 5 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and the Tar Heels play at a very fast pace with balance inside and out with the return of Paige to the lineup.
It’s tough to see Texas containing the interior as North Carolina pounds the ball inside to double-double star forward Brice Johnson and fellow big body Kennedy Meeks, who are both shooting better than 58 percent FG this season. Versatile swingman Justin Jackson is scoring 14 points per game and while the Tar Heels are shooting just 27 percent from downtown, that output should improve quickly with Paige stabilizing the back court.
HOW THE TEXAS LONGHORNS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
The Longhorns are one of the worst teams in the country thus far in allowing 40 percent offensive rebounding by their opponents. That’s surprising with seniors Cameron Ridley and Connor Lammert patrolling the paint. The Longhorns will need to slow the game down and limit possessions. Issues continue with their inability to force enough turnovers, and the Longhorns are a below-average shooting team thus far.
Isaiah Taylor is solid at the point and Ridley is a huge body in the paint scoring 11 points while pulling down nearly 10 rebounds per game. But this team is struggling to adjust to new coach Shaka Smart’s system with three freshman contributing and Smart trying to install his system and belief structure.
Texas is playing at a below average pace and North Carolina forces long possessions with their own aggressive and athletic personnel on defense.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Tar Heels will be laying close to 10 points on the road, but a look at the Longhorns recent results shows why they will struggle against a top team like the Tar Heels.
In their two recent home games, Texas won in overtime over Texas-Arlington as a 10-point favorite and was outrebounded badly. Then the Longhorns were flat in a 10-point win laying 21 against Samford.
The basketball team is clearly struggling to adjust to the new system under coach Shaka Smart, and they are now 1-5 ATS. The price may be a little inflated on the Tar Heels, but that’s the only way we can look at this point in this match-up.
North Carolina 79, Texas 66
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