The North Carolina Tar Heels will get another chance at cutting down the nets, advancing to the National Championship game for the second consecutive season with a dramatic win over Oregon in the semifinals. Looking to erase the painful memory of last year’s loss, the Tar Heels have one more hurdle to get over. But that’s a big leap against the Gonzaga Bulldogs, one of the most well-balanced teams in the country and one that spent several weeks ranked No. 1.
The National Championship game will go down Monday, April 3, 2017, at 9:20 p.m. ET at the University of Phoenix Stadium. The game will be televised live on CBS. NCAA basketball odds are available at BookMaker.eu.
Odds at BookMaker.eu
North Carolina Tar Heels -1.5
Gonzaga Bulldogs +1.5
Over/Under 153.5
If the opening line holds up come tip time, Gonzaga will play as an underdog for the first time all season. The Zags failed to cover the 6.5-point spread in their semifinal win over South Carolina and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in the Tournament, but they are playing in their first-ever title game with plenty of momentum. Playing against enormous lines all season, the Zags were still good to their backers by posting a 20-6-1 ATS mark during the regular season. Expectedly, things have been much tougher in the Tournament, but the Zags have met every challenge.
The scene is much more familiar to the Tar Heels and their group of returning players who endured the loss to Villanova in the title game last season. UNC closed as a 2-point favorite in that contest before falling on a buzzer-beating three-pointer. The five players who started in UNC’s semifinal win over Oregon all played in last year’s championship game and that experience should mean something. The Heels didn’t cover the 4-point line in their 77-76 win over the Ducks, but they are 7-4-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Injury Report
With one game left in the season and a national championship at stake, Joel Berry II isn’t going to sit. But with two gimpy ankles, how much of an impact will he have? Berry injured his right ankle in the Tournament opener and struggled in the next round against Arkansas. He was solid against Butler in the Sweet 16 matchup, but rolled his left ankle in UNC’s Elite Eight win over Kentucky. Berry proclaimed himself to be 85 percent heading into Saturday’s game and proceeded to play 35 minutes.
Berry escaped the win over Oregon without incident, but the minutes and pounding on two sore ankles didn’t help the recovery process. And his poor shooting game didn’t quell the fears of the Carolina faithful. Berry made just 2 of 14 shots from the field and even had issues at the free throw line, connecting on just 5 of 9. The Tar Heels will have trouble down low against Gonzaga’s size and they’ll need Berry to be better if they want to win a title.
Player to Watch
UNC dominated Oregon in the trenches with its superior front court and won the game by collecting critical offensive rebounds at the end of the game. Kennedy Meeks had his way against the smaller Ducks with Berry and Isaiah Hicks struggling from the floor. He scored 25 points and corralled 14 rebounds. But it’ll be more of a challenge against the Zags and their exceptional front court.
Przemek Karnowski is the leader of that group, but the Zags have a future NBA first round pick in Zach Collins, who had a breakout game that allowed Gonzaga to advance. Collins is the first player in Final Four history to record a double-double with at least five blocks. He came off the bench to score 14 points, grabbed 13 rebounds and blocked six shots, denying the Gamecocks at the rim countless other times. And it was the kind of effort Collins has had all season.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
UNC faced some stiff competition during its ACC schedule but the Zags are a team that rivals any from a major conference. Their balance is incredible with a frontcourt that features a pair of 7-footers and a backcourt that’s nimble and can shoot. Not only is Gonzaga efficient on offense, the Zags are the best defensive team in the country in adjusted efficiency, allowing just 86.6 points per 100 possessions.
Meeks, Hicks and Justin Jackson will be neutralized by the Zags stellar frontcourt and with Berry limping around on two bum ankles, the backcourt edge goes to Gonzaga as well. The Zags would likely win this one even if Berry was 100 percent, but without him at full strength, the Tar Heels will be denied the title for a second straight season.
College Basketball Odds: Gonzaga 73, North Carolina 69
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