One month ago it seemed inconceivable that the Notre Dame Fighting Irish would be playing for a share of the ACC regular season title. But here we are, on the final weekend, and with a win over the Louisville Cardinals combined with a North Carolina loss, the Irish would share the title with the Tar Heels. One month ago Notre Dame was a middle-of-the-pack team in the rugged conference, but with six straight wins, they might be playing the best basketball of anyone when it matters most.
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A close loss to North Carolina on Feb. 5 was Notre Dame’s fourth straight and the Irish were reeling. They had also dropped games to Duke and Virginia in that skid and were sitting at 6-5 in ACC play. There was a glimmer of hope with some of the better teams in the league out of the way, and the hope turned into a roll. The Irish upended Wake Forest following the UNC game, starting a run of six consecutive victories that vaulted them within a game of first place. Notre Dame is 4-2 ATS during its streak and has been decent on the road with a 5-2 ATS record in its last seven conference matchups.
The Cardinals may have just let Wake Forest into the dance. Louisville was upset by the unranked Demon Deacons on Wednesday, losing any hope of an ACC regular season title, and will at least have one more regular season game to wash that disappointment away. And it’s been an odd stretch for the Cardinals, who lost for the third time in their last seven games and have struggled defensively. The Cards are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven but the over is 6-1, not good for a team that prides itself on playing defense.
Last Meeting
If the Cardinals needed any more motivation for this game, there’s the loss to the Irish they suffered back in early January to get them fired up. It was an all-around crappy game by Louisville, and though they probably deserved to lose, the Cards were still in it late despite everything they did wrong. The Cards gave up a season high in points at the time and had a difficult time on the other end, shooting below 40 percent.
And for Louisville, a win would snap a string of four consecutive losses to the Irish, something Rick Pitino and his club isn’t used to. It looks as though the Irish have gotten into the heads of the Cards. Notre Dame outscored Louisville 9-2 in the final two minutes of that game and abused what had been the top ranked team in defensive efficiency.
Key Stat
Notre Dame is tough to beat in close games and an even tougher team to try and comeback against because they shoot free throws so well. The Irish are the best free throw shooting team in the country knocking down 81 percent of their freebies, and their ability to connect from the stripe was huge in their win over the Cardinals earlier this season. Notre Dame sank 22 of 25 and was 15 of 16 in the second half.
Their top five scorers all shoot better than 81 percent from the free throw line and four of those guys are starters who each average 32 minutes per game. There is no one player opponents can foul when needing missed shots from the stripe, which makes it difficult to mount a comeback.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
It’s hard to go against Louisville, especially at home. But the Irish have had their number recently and posted an impressive win over the Cards earlier this season. And Notre Dame is on a roll having won six straight with a chance at a share of the ACC crown. That would be a special accomplishment for Mike Brey and his group, but the Irish need some help to get it. However, they also have to take care of business on their end.
Louisville hasn’t lost two straight all season, but their defense has been a major issue lately. The Cards allow just 65 points per game, but they’ve given up an average of over 78 points per game in their last five. If that doesn’t get corrected, the Cardinals will be staring at their first losing streak of the season.
College Basketball Odds: Notre Dame 74, Louisville 71
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