Notre Dame was responsible for half of Duke’s four losses last season, winning two of the three meetings from the national champions. The loss, however, was a doozy, as the Blue Devils pummeled the Irish by 30 at Cameron Indoor.
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HOW THE NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Notre Dame doesn’t have much room to improve offensively, so the Irish have turned their focus to playing consistently good defense. Notre Dame held Boston College to 33.3 percent shooting last week, five days after Virginia shot 57.1 percent.
Just to prove how consistently inconsistent the Irish have been, last Saturday, they allowed the Pitt Panthers to shoot 50 percent from the field, 52.6 percent from three-point range, and to make 83.3 percent of their free throws. What the Irish did offensively – which was plenty – didn’t get it done in an 86-82 loss.
Coach Mike Bray knows exactly what his team’s weakness is and challenged his players to be better. “My challenge was: ‘you play so good offensively. Why can’t you have each others back more on the defensive end?’” The coach also threatened lineup changes to light a fire under his group that has underachieved, particularly on the defensive side.
The Irish have the 9th-ranked offense in terms of points scored per 100 possessions in the nation. That’s one spot higher than Kansas, and ranks better than Oklahoma, Villanova and Butler, to name a few. So we know offense isn’t the problem. If the Irish can get some crucial stops and play as efficiently on defense as they do on offense, there could be an upset in Durham.
HOW THE DUKE BLUE DEVILS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Blue Devils faced a critical point in their season when Amile Jefferson’s injury crippled their depth and took away some on-court senior leadership, which coach Mike Krzyzewski said is invaluable. The brunt of the minutes fell on Brandon Ingram and Marshall Plumlee and, in typical Duke fashion, the pair responded with the ninth-ranked team in the country rolling because of it.
Duke has won six of eight games without Jefferson, despite only six players playing at least 10 minutes in five of those games. Ingram is averaging better than 20 points and 36 minutes over the past nine games after averaging 10.9 point and 24.6 minutes in his first seven.
The guys have stepped up for Coach K, which they seemingly always do. But there is little behind the front six. In their 24-point win over Virginia Tech last week, the Blue Devils used just eight players, with the last two off the bench – Chase Jeter and Nick Pagliuca – playing a combined nine minutes and not scoring.
There is no timetable for Jefferson’s return so the Dukies will have to continue plugging along with little margin for error. They need to stay out of foul trouble and most importantly stay healthy. Both teams are efficient on the offensive end of the floor, but Duke would like to avoid a track meet and keep its thin roster ready.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Both team’s like the offensive side of the game, combining to average better than 166 points per game. With a bunch of future NBAers competing in the series last season, the teams played all three below the scoreline. The total will be high for this one, but watch for the Blue Devils to slow the pace a bit. They don’t want to get into a track meet with the Irish. Notre Dame will employ the opposite strategy, trying to get the Dukies on the run to wear down a thin roster. Whichever team is most successful with its game plan gets an edge. But there is just something about playing at Cameron Indoor that seems to spook the visitors. That alone gives Duke an advantage and they use it to pull out the victory.
Duke 74, Notre Dame 66
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