The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have failed to cover their last three games of the non-conference season, and that probably isn't a good sign going into ACC play. The first task might be the toughest for any team this year. The Virginia Cavaliers might have the best home court advantage in the conference, and that's who the Irish have to go against on Saturday.
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HOW THE NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH CAN COVER THE SPREAD
This isn't going to be an easy game for Notre Dame at all. The Fighting Irish really have no choice but to try to boost the tempo in this game and knock down a lot of outside shots. They just aren't going to be good enough defensively in this game to win a 57-55 slugfest.
If Notre Dame is going to cover this one, it's going to be up to Demetrius Jackson and V.J. Beachem, both of which are tremendous three-point shooters. Granted, all six of the Irish top scorers are averaging double-digits, but the depth just isn't there beyond Jackson, Beachem, Zach Auguste, Steve Vasturia and Bonzie Colson.
Auguste can be the X-Factor in this game. He's averaging a double-double per game at 14.2 points and 10.4 boards. Here's the real concern, though. He only had four points and five rebounds when these two teams met last year in South Bend. The Cavaliers have a lot of bigs to throw his way, and if Auguste can't end up doing much better than he did last season against the Hoos, Notre Dame is in a heck of a lot of trouble.
HOW THE VIRGINIA CAVALIERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Virginia was probably taught a bit of a lesson when it escaped from Cal in its last game before Christmas. John Paul Jones Arena is a nightmare to try to play in, and with the students back on campus, Notre Dame is going to be in a lot of trouble.
The Cavaliers really have to ultimately keep the pace of this game slow. They obviously play strong defense, though you wouldn't necessarily know it based on the fact that teams are shooting over 40 percent from the field and over 30 percent from three-point range. That said, they allow teams to pull in just 24.8 rebounds per game, the best in the nation, and they allow the fourth-fewest offensive rebounds as well.
Efficiency is the key on offense. The Cavaliers shoot 50.3 percent from the field and end up taking the right shot on most possessions. The Irish have some real pain guards to try to get through in the half court, but London Perrantes and Malcolm Brogdon are great with the ball in their hands, and as long as they aren't lax, Virginia should be in fine shape.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
For our money, Virginia has the best team in the ACC this season. Heck, Mike Tobey, a man who averaged over 20 minutes per game three years ago as a sophomore and was thought to be one of the most underappreciated big men in the nation, can't even get onto the court for the most part.
Notre Dame really isn't going to have a shot in this game as we see it. Auguste is going to be overwhelmed on the inside once again, while the guards are going to be smothered. Unless the Fighting Irish are going to knock down half of their shots from beyond the arc, they're going to be beaten up on the glass and ultimately worn out. This might not be the most emphatic victory ever, but we think the Hoos will get the job done with another workmanlike performance.
Virginia 63, Notre Dame 55
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