If the Austin Peay Governors end up making the NCAA Tournament, they'll certainly have earned their spot even though they went just 14-17 in the regular season. They're playing their fourth game in four days at the OVC Tournament in Nashville, and they're stuck playing against the Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks, the hottest team in the Ohio Valley, and a team which has played just once thus far in the tourney.
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HOW THE AUSTIN PEAY GOVERNORS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Governors pretty much come down to three players who have to play their hearts out in this game. All season long, Chris Horton, Josh Robinson and Khalil Davis have led this club, and these are the three that are going to have to get the job done again in this one.
Horton is really the interesting man to watch. UTM is a badly undersized team with no one in the starting five beyond 6-foot-7. Horton is only 6-foot-8, but he plays significantly bigger than that. Thus far in the OVC Tournament, he's averaged 27.3 points and 16.3 boards per game, and he's averaged 8.3 offensive rebounds per game to boot. That's just a tremendous number for any player at any level, and just as he played his heart out against Belmont in the semifinals, Horton will again have to be massive here to have any chance to beat UTM.
HOW THE TENNESSEE-MARTIN SKYHAWKS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Skyhawks aren't particularly great shooters from distance, but if they can stretch out the floor just a bit here and get the Governors on the move on the perimeter, they should be able to find a lot of openings, particularly in the second half.
Alex Anderson will be the man who can change this game. Sure, Anderson is shooting just 37.0 percent from the field, but he's also a 35.2 percent three-point shooter and can really get going in a hurry. Jacolby Mobley is a big man who can stretch the floor as well. He's not a great rebounder, nor does he dish the ball much, but he stands in the corner and just picks off threes time and time again.
If these two are stroking some long shots, that should open up play on the inside for the team's two leading scorers, Twymond Howard and Myles Taylor, who are good for 27.5 points per game between them on the season. Taylor, in particular, is a 63 percent shooters from the field, and he's great around the rim. There isn't a reason for him to struggle in this game against a tired and worn out Austin Peay side.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
For as much as we'd love to be able to talk about the story of the Govs all the way through March Madness, we have a feeling Cinderella's carriage is turning into a pumpkin here on Saturday.
Austin Peay's defense is far too inconsistent here as we see it. The Governors allow 76.1 points per game, and though they've played well enough on offense here in the OVC Tournament to make up for those shortcomings, doing so against UTM is going to be a tall order, particularly playing a fourth game in four nights.
The Skyhawks are going to be the fourth team asked to lay lumber against these Governors, but they're the ones who will finally get the job done to make their way to the NCAA Tournament.
Tennessee-Martin 80, Austin Peay 67
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