The Memphis Tigers have always had that team with too much talent to fail, yet the results don't match the names and the faces. Josh Pastner is on a hellaciously hot seat coming into the season, and he needs to win games like these against the Oklahoma Sooners to keep his job.
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HOW THE OKLAHOMA SOONERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Sooners clearly have the more talented of these two teams, and they're going to be reasonable favorites even though they're playing a legit road game. This wasn't a great away team last season at just 5-6, but there's enough talent returning here in Buddy Hield, Isaiah Cousins, Jordan Woodard and Ryan Spangler to keep OU in any game it plays.
We're a little concerned about Oklahoma's efficiency levels. In games against tourney teams last season, the Sooners shot just 40 percent from the field, and that isn't going to get the job done in a game like this against Memphis on the road. Only Spangler shot better than 42 percent from the field last year, and we'd like to see him usage go up.
What's missing is a big man in the middle. TaShawn Thomas has graduated, and the man who was projected to replace him, JUCO transfer Akolda Manyang has a stress fracture in his foot and isn't going to be ready to go until around Christmastime.
It's tough to ask Oklahoma to be an efficient shooting team without a man who can body up in the paint and bully his way to his own shot. If the Sooners start dipping into the 35 percent shooting range in this game, they're in a lot of trouble.
HOW THE MEMPHIS TIGERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Memphis has one of the best home court advantages in the nation, but it has to get back to playing defensive-minded basketball again. All too often, Pastner has tried to get this team out and running, and we just don't think that's the game the Tigers are best suited for.
Shaq Goodwin is a stalwart in this lineup at this point, and bringing in Ricky Tarrant from Alabama is only going to help out the offense.
The other big issue for the Tigers is going to be playing without Kedren Johnson, who might be out for the entire season with a shoulder injury. The point guard play is going to come down to Raquan Mitchell or Dedric Lawson, both of which are freshmen. Mitchell has only been on campus a month and isn't an ideal ball-handler anyway.
If the Tigers can find a point guard and slow things down, they've got a real shot. Otherwise, they'll be overmatched for sure.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Losing Johnson is a big blow for the Tigers, and they'll feel it on the court immediately. Our only real concern from Oklahoma's standpoint is if it gets too crazy with its offense, something that Lon Kruger is going to have to get under control.
Overmatched teams beat the big boys all the time in college hoops, but in this case, the discrepancy is just too large, even playing at the FedEx Forum.
Oklahoma is going to be a public play on the first major day of college hoops of the year, but we have no doubts that Hield and the gang will simply do enough to outscore the Tigers and their banged up backcourt.
Oklahoma 74, Memphis 63
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