A key first place showdown is set to tip in the Pac-12 on Thursday when Oregon invades Tucson to battle Arizona. The Ducks enter 16-4 overall and 5-2 in Pac-12 play while the Wildcats are also 16-4 but 4-3 in league play following a 73-72 loss at California on Saturday.
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HOW THE OREGON DUCKS COVER THE SPREAD
The Ducks have scored 86, 89 and 87 points in their last three games to raise their league scoring average to 76 points per game.
Forward Dillion Brooks has been among the league’s top players and poured in 25 points in the Ducks recent home win over UCLA. Senior Chris Boucher is a solid rebounder and leads the league in blocked shots with over 3.0 per game, and those two can hold their own inside along with senior Elgin Cook against the Wildcats top interior duo as the Ducks are No. 2 in the league in rebounding margin behind Arizona.
Point guard Casey Benson tops the league in assist-to-turnover ratio and has just four turnovers in seven league games. Freshman guard Tyler Dorsey is a sharp shooter from the arc, and Oregon forces opponents into longer possessions with its pressure defense and ability to force turnovers.
The Ducks are top-3 in steals and are very disciplined and well-coached under Dana Altman.
HOW THE ARIZONA WILDCATS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
The Wildcats are 11-0 at home and a win over the Ducks will be the 300th of coach Sean Miller’s career. Despite being a big favorite near double-digits, it won’t come easy or at all.
The Wildcats have played just two home games in Pac-12 play and blew out both Washington schools. Seniors Ryan Anderson and 7-footer Kaleb Tarczewski give them a pair of powerful players in the post with Anderson averaging a double-double and 61 percent shooting in league play with Tarczewski also near double-digits in both scoring and rebounding.
Senior Gabe York provides the perimeter pop at 14 PPG with freshman guard Allonzo Trier out with injury. Both Mark Tollefsen and Kadeem Allen are shooting 57 percent from the arc in league play to lead the Pac-12.
Arizona’s shooting a league-best 51 percent in Pac-12 play but its defense is not as stout this season although they do rank No. 2 in the country holding opponents off the offensive glass. The Wildcats are scoring a league-high 87 points per game in Pac-12 play with a league-best plus-11 rebounding margin, and their experienced players on a very strong home court with a top bench boss gives them the advantage.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Ducks are just 1-3 on the road but that win came as a 6-point ‘Dog at Utah where the Utes have lost just one time all season. Arizona will be a high single-digit favorite as it’s won all 11 home games by 12 or more points. The Ducks play with triple revenge for three lopsided losses to the Wildcats last year that saw them fall by 18+ points in each.
That includes falling 90-56 on this court and Arizona scored at least 80 points in all three games against Oregon last season.
But the Wildcats continue to play without co-leading scorer Allonzo Trier, the talented freshman guard who scored 15 points per game and has missed the last four contests with a broken hand.
Both teams are top-15 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and each allows 43 percent shooting in league play. The Wildcats get to the free throw line more than any Pac-12 team and hit a strong 74 percent while the Ducks shoot just 65 percent at the charity stripe.
That will be a key in this contest as the Ducks must minimize fouls and free throw attempts to pull out what would be an impressive road win.
These are the top-2 coaches in the Pac-12, and while the Wildcats are experienced and extremely strong at home, we have to take the generous points knowing the Ducks can battle the hosts on the glass and have found their scoring groove.
Arizona 77, Oregon 74
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BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The matchup between the Oregon Ducks and Arizona Wildcats will go down Thursday, January 28, 2016, at 11:00 p.m. ET at the McKale Center. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN2.