The No. 12 ranked Ducks narrowly beat out the Golden Bears a month ago in Oregon. On Thursday, they’ll journey south as California looks to get the job done this time around on its home floor.
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HOW THE OREGON DUCKS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Ducks have won six straight games and covered the closing spread in each. Oregon boasts a nice balanced roster that ranks favorable on offense and defense, outscoring the opposition by 10.7 PPG.
The team has four separate players with at least 12.7 PPG and plenty of talent and depth, particularly in the frontcourt. Forward Dillon Brooks leads the team in scoring with 16.9 PPG and is also the top rebounder averaging six per game. He’s shooting a very strong 48.3 percent from the floor.
The quality on this team goes beyond the top four players—which includes Tyler Dorsey at the guard position.
In addition to those four, they’ve got others that can step up including Jordan Bell who is seeing under 19 minutes per game, but has a shooting percentage over 60, while Casey Benson is a useful passer and ball handler in the backcourt.
The opposition also makes this a winnable game SU and ATS. The Golden Bears have dropped five of their last eight games SU and six of their last eight ATS.
In addition, California is without one of its better players in guard Tyrone Wallace. Wallace is out with a broken hand. Without him, the Bears lose 15.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG and their top shooting guard. They also lose their assists leader.
HOW THE CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Golden Bears successfully covered the spread last month, losing by just three points on the road. At home, California is better ATS, going 9-5 compared to a poor 2-5 mark on the road.
Statistically, California has a strong defense, allowing 66.7 PPG and holding the opposition to a mere 38.7 percent shooting from the floor. Offensively, they’re not juggernauts, but they get the job done, outscoring opponents by 7.6 PPG and shooting a very solid 46.6 percent on field goals.
While the injury to Tyrone Wallace is substantial, the Bears still have Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb inside the paint. Those two lead the charge in rebounds which have led to a 10.6 RPG edge over the opposition.
Both are also scoring more than a dozen points per game.
Also scoring over that threshold is guard Jordan Mathews at 13.4 PPG. Mathews and fellow guard Jabari Bird have to pick up the burden with Wallace out. Mathews has shown the ability to carry a team in scoring 28-points back on January 23 to lead the team to a win over Arizona. Bird, meanwhile, has eclipsed double digits in points in four of his last six games after averaging 8.7 this season.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Oregon is deep inside and weaker on the perimeter. With a healthy Wallace, the Bears were able to hang with the Ducks, with a superior shooting percentage and more rebounds in their first head-to-head meeting.
Wallace scored 16 in that game with Brown and Ian Rabb having nice games, too, but California will need to get repeat performances from them, make up the difference lost by Wallace and add a couple more points to boot.
All that is a possibility, but it’s not very likely.
Of course, playing at home certainly helps, but there’s just too much talent on Oregon’s roster. California had most everything go right last month in terms of the numbers and still fell by three points.
Look for the Ducks to shoot better on Thursday and come away with another win.
Oregon 73, California 67
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Click here and start wagering today! The matchup between the Oregon Ducks and California Golden Bears will take place Thursday, February 11, 2016, at 9 p.m. ET at the Haas Pavilion. You can watch the game live on ESPN2.
