The Oregon Ducks control their own destiny to the Pac-12’s regular season title. A pair of wins this week in Southern California does the job, regardless of what the other contenders do. But the Ducks must win in Pauley Pavilion, a building that hasn’t been kind to them over the years.
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HOW THE OREGON DUCKS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
A weekend sweep of the Washington schools lifted the Ducks into the top-10 this week, climbing to No. 9 in the AP poll, their highest ranking since reaching the nine-spot back in February of 2007. Now a Pac-12 regular season title is theirs for the taking with wins in Southern California.
Oregon has been good all season at taking care of the basketball, and that will come in handy on the road. Limiting turnovers and opponent possessions will be big against UCLA, which likes to play a tempo game and run the floor. The Bruins average nearly 78 points per game.
Playing up-tempo is also the brand of ball Oregon plays and the Ducks have done it better than Bruins. But the Ducks also like to get dirty and do the less glorified work it takes to win on the road. Sunday’s win over Washington was evidence of that. OU held the Huskies below 40 percent field goal shooting, won the rebound battle and converted several of those into second-chance points.
Led by a group of seniors, including second-leading scorer Elgin Cook and leading rebounder Chris Boucher, they aren’t going to let an opportunity to wrap up the conference regular season title slip through their grasp.
HOW THE UCLA BRUINS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
It’s been a difficult and frustrating season for UCLA. But it is UCLA and the game is played at iconic Pauley Pavilion where 11 national championship banners hang from the rafters. So while the Bruins have looked listless and disinterested most of the year, finishing at home and knocking off the league leaders is a chance to right most of the season’s wrongs.
UCLA has improved defensively since Jonah Bolden was inserted into the starting lineup. He provides more athleticism and versatility to combat the swing players that have taken over the conference. Unfortunately he doesn’t add much at the offensive end and his playing time suffers.
If Bolden can show some creativity around the basket and bury some shots, the Bruins can be much more dangerous. As it is, they rely heavily on the play of guards Bryce Alford and Isaac Hayes.
The backcourt mates each average better than 16 points and are the Bruins’ top three-point artists. The Bruins will likely need to get in a track meet and outscore the Ducks to have a chance with Alford and Hayes doing most of the damage.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Ducks made the Pac-12 race interesting by losing twice in Northern California in mid-February. They’ve since regained their footing, rattled off three straight wins, and are fending off Utah and Cal down the stretch. To a man the Ducks say they will take the energy they play with at home, where they won all their games this season, and take that on the road. Of course that’s easier said than done. And playing in Pauley Pavilion is a bit intimidating. But these Bruins aren’t nearly as scary as past squads and they limp into the final week of the regular season having lost seven of their past 10. That stretch started with a loss in Eugene on Jan. 23, where the Ducks easily covered the 6.5-point spread in an 86-72 victory. Oregon is staring at a conference title and even the once mighty UCLA Bruins aren’t going to prevent the Ducks from getting closer to obtaining it.
Oregon 85, UCLA 78
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