Oregon survived a scare from St. Joseph’s in the Round of 32 before gutting out a tough win at the end. Now the Ducks have to face a much tougher opponent in the reigning national champion Duke Blue Devils in the Sweet Sixteen.
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HOW THE OREGON DUCKS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
There was a lot of hand wringing about making Oregon a No. 1 seed, but the Ducks have earned the seed by making the second weekend of the tournament. Now Oregon has the hopes of the entire Pac-12 on its shoulders as the only team left in the tournament.
St. Joseph’s hung tough throughout the second half but eventually Dillon Brooks was just too much for the Hawks. Brooks went 4-7 from three-point range and hit 54 percent of his shots from the floor for a game high 25 points in a five point Oregon win. He’ll be pitted against Grayson Allen on Thursday and both will be asked to score a ton of points.
Other than Brooks, Oregon had good efforts from Elgin Cook and Tyler Dorsey but everyone else really struggled. The Ducks will need a better performance from the rest of their rotation players to beat Duke.
HOW THE DUKE BLUE DEVILS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
Duke has survived game efforts from UNC-Wilmington and Yale to reach the Sweet Sixteen and it has an easier route to thank for making it. The Blue Devils have seen the bracket break their way and even though they face a No. 1 seed, it is by some measures the weakest No. 1 seed in years.
Grayson Allen has been the story for Duke all season and shined against Yale on Saturday, hitting 10-of-15 shots and putting up a game high 29 points. He doesn’t contribute anything other than scoring but when he’s on he pours in points by the bucket load.
Brandon Ingram will need to have better games if Duke wants to advance much further in the tournament considering how perilously thin the Blue Devils are. Ingram is talented no doubt, but can get into shooting slumps. He only hit 7-19 shots against Yale and must do better as a 40 minute a game player.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Oregon is 20-13 ATS on the year and had covered six of its last seven before falling a couple points short of covering against St. Joseph’s. The Ducks have seen six of their last nine go under the total.
The Blue Devils are one of the top scoring teams in the country, but Vegas has lined accordingly. Under bettors have seen 19 of Duke’s 34 games go under the total, including seven of their its ten. Duke has been awful ATS as of late with a 1-6 ATS record in its last seven games and the one game they covered, against Yale, saw the Blue Devils cover by one point.
Duke is probably going to be a very popular bet this week in what should be a short spread, but Oregon is a No. 1 seed for a reason. The Blue Devils have more problems than people think. Yale outrebounded them by 10, and if Allen struggles from long range, they’re done. Oregon has better role players and they will be the key in a Ducks win and likely cover.
Oregon 78, Duke 74
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