Just a single loss to Purdue on their record, the Panthers journey to Louisville to take on a fellow top-20 squad in the Cardinals. Each team sits at a mere 6-6 ATS heading into the action.
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HOW THE PITTSBURGH PANTHERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Panthers haven’t lost a game since December 1 and are 5-3 ATS in their last eight games with a published spread. Pittsburgh is also in the midst of three straight games with at least 86 points scored.
Pittsburgh has been playing great basketball since conference play began and, as shown by their last three games, boasts a remarkable offense.
Ranked No. 10 in the nation, the Panthers are averaging 85.3 PPG and shooting 49.7 percent from the floor. To go along with the strong offense, the Panthers defense is stout, too, allowing just 65.4 PPG - a differential of nearly 20 points.
On the boards, the Panthers are recording 14.3 more a game than their opponents thanks to a strong frontcourt.
Inside the paint, the team has forwards Michael Young and Jamel Artis leading the team in scoring with 17.5 and 16.0 PPG respectively. Of course, you cannot boast such a strong offense on just your play inside, James Robinson is giving the team 10.5 PPG from the guard position while Sterling Smith is shooting 49.1 percent from three-point range.
Pittsburgh does have to square off against an equally tough Louisville squad on the road, but with Mangok Mathiang still out and the team having dropped five straight ATS, the Panthers have the odds in their favor.
HOW THE LOUISVILLE CARDINALS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
If you’re looking for a reason to look past their string of five straight pointspread losses and back the Cardinals on Thursday, you don’t have to look much further than last year’s win over Pittsburgh. They won handily, limiting the Panthers to 56 points and a 37.7 shooting percentage from the floor.
They’ve got a strong enough defense to hold them down once again.
Louisville is holding its opponents to 58.8 PPG and ranks third in field goal percentage allowed. The Panthers have a difficult offense to defend, but the Cardinals ability on the glass should help greatly with them averaging 42.8 RPG.
In terms of individual talent, the Cardinals are stacked. The loss of Mathiang is important, but fellow center Chinanu Onuaku stands 6’10” and provides some height inside. He’s also shooting 64.9 percent from the floor with 10.1 PPG and 8.7 RPG. He and forward Raymond Spalding can work to counter Young and Artis.
While that matchup still favors the Panthers, the Cards have the advantage on the outside.
Guards Damion Lee and Trey Lewis should be able to carry this team. They’ve got a combined 30 PPG. Quentin Snider adds a good perimeter shooter with a 42 percent mark from three-point range.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Lee and Lewis should keep the game close, but the Panthers are trending much better than the Cardinals. The Cardinals have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four home games.
Look for Young and Artis to lead the scoring from the inside as Pittsburgh is in position for a payback victory after a 69-56 loss to Louisville last season. Even in a down game against Louisville last year, the two combined for 31 points and 13 rebounds. The team as a whole figures to shoot better this time around.
The Panthers’ offense is rolling right now against fellow ACC competition. The Cards are better equipped to slow that offense than the other teams they’ve faced, but I look for them to score enough to allow their defense to take care of the rest.
Pittsburgh 71, Louisville 68
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