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The Providence Friars have quietly started to slip just a bit in Big East play. They might be 16-3 and be ranked in the Top 25, but they also have dropped home games against Seton Hall and Marquette since the start of the new year. Saturday's clash against the Villanova Wildcats is surely going to be a tough call indeed.
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HOW THE PROVIDENCE FRIARS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Friars absolutely have to find a way to keep control of the basketball. Kris Dunn by himself has at least four turnovers in four straight games, and that's really taking away from his 17.2 points per game. Ben Bentil is still the team's leading scorer at 19.2 points per game, but he and Dunn aren't going to be able to do this alone.
Offensive efficiency is the key. We've seen Providence get away with poor shooting games time and time again, but it's finally catching up now that the schedule is significantly tougher. The Villanova defense is out of this world and routinely keeps teams in the 50s, and if the Friars are the next ones to struggle to reach even in the 60s, they're going to be as good as dead. Anything less than 70 points in this one is going to be a disaster for the visitors.
HOW THE VILLANOVA WILDCATS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Wildcats have won nine games in a row coming into this one, and there really is no end in sight to their winning ways. Everything seems to be working at the moment for Jay Wright's crew save for the fact that the oddsmakers are stacking everything against them. Villanova was -7 at Georgetown and -17.5 at home against Marquette, and it's really tough when you're going up against good teams and being forced to lay outrageous numbers.
The big thing Villanova has going for it is offensive efficiency. There just aren't all that many wasted possessions. The Wildcats are turning the ball over just a tick over 10 times per NCAAB game, and they're even lower than that in Big East play. Ryan Arcidiacono is still one of the best point guards in the entire nation, and he might be the best court operator in the land as well.
If there's a ding on this team offensively, it's that Kris Jenkins hasn't shot the ball well at all. However, you can see immediately what happens when he has a good shooting game. Against Marquette, the junior went 6-of-12 from the field and scored 20 points. The Wildcats poured in 83 and really turned on the jets in the second half, outscoring the Golden Eagles 46-30.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The makeup of this Providence team just isn't what it was last year, and the paper thin schedule outside of conference play is really coming back to bite the team in the backside now that the rest of the really good teams from the Big East are starting to show up on the docket.
Even though Villanova is again going to be asked to lay a huge figure at home, we think there's still enough of a sentiment of positivity around the Friars to find some value against them. The defense for the Wildcats should be smothering in this one, and that'll be enough to hold the Friars in the low-60s. If that's the way this pans out, this should be another double-digit victory at The Pavilion for the 'Cats.
Villanova 76, Providence 63
Access live betting lines from your mobile device or tablet at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here, so start betting with BookMaker today! The Providence Friars and Villanova Wildcats will square off Saturday, January 23, 2016, at 12:00 p.m. ET at The Pavilion. The matchup will be televised live on FOX.
