The Providence Friars probably won the most dramatic of all of the games on Thursday, as Rodney Bullock hit the game-winning shot with 1.5 seconds left to beat USC. They're going to have to dig deep if they want a shot against the top seed in the East Region, the North Carolina Tar Heels.
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HOW THE PROVIDENCE FRIARS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Friars are fortunate to still be in this tournament. They weren't the better team against USC in our estimation, and they'll have to be significantly better against North Carolina to avoid getting run off the court. That means big minutes out of both Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil.
Bentil has the potential to be frustrated by all of the size North Carolina is going to bring to the table. There were times against USC that Bentil was fantastic, but his overall stats of 19 points and nine boards don't really tell the whole story. He only shot 7-of-21 from the floor, and at crucial times of the game, he was MIA.
Dunn fought through some foul trouble to come up with some of the biggest shots of the season and of his career. He went 4-for-5 from beyond the arc, and he proved that he can really light it up like few others in this tournament. The Tar Heels aren't fantastic when it comes to shooting threes, and though Dunn isn't an elite level three-point shooter either, as he proved against the Trojans, he can really heat up in a hurry. He'll be the man who has to knock down huge shots on Saturday.
HOW THE NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Tar Heels had a rough 20 minutes against Florida Gulf Coast, but they really put their foot on the gas pedal in the second half to put the game away. They didn't cover the spread, but they did put on an impressive display and were never threatened to become the first No. 1 seed to ever lose to a No. 16.
There were some positive signs here for UNC and its prospects of a deep run. The Tar Heels got a few threes out of Marcus Paige, and though he only had 10 points, he also didn't turn the ball over and showed a lot of aggressiveness. It's going to take good guard play to ultimately win this tournament for sure.
Brice Johnson is going to need some help in the paint as well, though. He had 18 points, seven boards and eight blocks against FGCU, but Kennedy Meeks went just 2-for-9 from the field, while Joel James didn't score in seven minutes.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Friars are going to end up being pretty overmatched here as we see it. They've got two really good players in Dunn and Bentil, but neither one really matches up well with Carolina's brute strength. Let's not forget that Raleigh may as well be Chapel Hill, particularly for a weekend game with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line.
We love the way Paige is playing, and we think UNC is going to pick up right where it left off in the second half against Florida Gulf Coast against a Providence side we're not even all that sure belonged in the NCAA Tournament for as poorly as it played down the stretch. We're not convinced that all of the No. 1 seeds are going to advance to the Sweet 16, but we're fairly certainly Carolina won't have any issues.
North Carolina 89, Providence 73
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