Iowa's surprising loss at Penn St on Wednesday reopened the door for the No. 22 Indiana Hoosiers to win at least a share of the Big Ten title. Standing in its way however, is an in-state rival who lives for knocking off the Hoosiers, the No. 17 Purdue Boilermakers.
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HOW THE PURDUE BOILERMAKERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
A.J. Hammons is the leader of the Boilermakers and is currently averaging 14.6 points and 8.2 rebounds a game to help pace one of the best rebounding teams in the country. Hammons played a big role in Indiana's one point win over Michigan St last week, with seven offensive rebounds and eight blocks in addition to his usual numbers.
Hammons is Indiana born and bred, from Gary, and understands the heated nature of this rivalry.
Purdue is typically known for the play of its big men so it's not much of a surprise that its leader in assists this season is 6'8 forward Vince Edwards. Edwards does a little bit of everything in his role. He is second on the team in scoring and third on the team in rebounding in addition to being tops in assists.
In Purdue's last five games, shooting has become a big issue for the normally reliable Edwards. He is just 12-for-44 from the field over this stretch and has failed to break double digits in any game. Edwards needs a better game for Purdue to beat the Hoosiers here.
HOW THE INDIANA HOOSIERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
After knocking off Iowa early in the week, Hoosiers fans were anticipating finally getting the respect they feel they have been due. However, a blowout loss in East Lansing just a few days later brought Indiana back down to Earth and gave its detractors something to snicker about.
The Hoosiers are still a very good team though. Yogi Ferrell gets a lot of love and rightfully so, but he hasn't been an effective shooter lately, hitting just 20.6 percent of his shots and 19 percent of his three point attempts in Indiana's last three games. He should be able to take advantage of Purdue's guards in this game though and rediscover his shot.
For Indiana to hold off Purdue, it will need to be able to rebound well. Troy Williams and Thomas Bryant are the team's leading rebounders and combine to bring down 12 boards a game, but will need to bring their full effort against Purdue’s large frontcourt.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Purdue has struggled ATS-wise away from home this season with a 3-5 record. The under has been a decent bet in those eight road games with a 5-3 mark. The Boilermakers have struggled ATS as of late, losing four straight against the number and seven of their last eight.
The Hoosiers have been a great team to back at Assembly Hall this season with a 10-4 ATS mark to date. The over has been the play for totals at home with eight of 14 games surpassing the closing total. Indiana is just 2-4 ATS over its last six games overall.
Indiana is finally in the tough part of its schedule and how the Hoosiers play down the stretch will prove whether or not they are for real. The Hoosiers have been extremely good at home this season with a 14-0 overall record and are the choice to back here.
Lay the points with Indiana here and bet on Ferrell to have a 20 point game.
Indiana 77, Purdue 70
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