Maryland has played a slew of close games this season and they’ve been successful in most of them. In fact, the Terps have won their last three games by a total of 16 points. Saturday’s matchup with Purdue figures to be another tight one and the Boilermakers are next up to try and snap Maryland’s 25-game home win streak.
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HOW THE PURDUE BOILERMAKERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Purdue’s game plan is really simple. Feed A.J. Hammons the basketball. Repeat. When Hammons plays the way he did last Saturday, the No. 18 Boilermakers have the opportunity to beat most of college basketball’s elite.
The 7-foot center was no match for an undersized Nebraska squad and had his way in the paint making 14 of 17 shots and all four free throws for a career-high 32 points. As if that wasn’t enough, he also grabbed 11 rebounds, had five assists and blocked four shots leading Purdue to an 89-74 victory over Nebraska.
The Boilermakers are much more than just Hammons, however. Isaac Haas gives them a pair of 7-footers who are active around the basket and can fill it up. With two bigs in the lineup, opponents are forced to match up and that frees Raphael Davis and P.J. Thompson in the backcourt.
Maryland matches up well with Purdue, so hitting a high percentage of shots and not turning the ball over will be critical in the outcome.
HOW THE MARYLAND TERRAPINS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Maryland played a sloppy game last time out but was still able to squeak by a scrappy Nebraska club on the road 70-65 on Wednesday. The Terps turned the ball over 18 times, their most in a conference game this season, but limited the Huskers to just 31.8 percent shooting. They likely won’t get away with handling the basketball that poorly against Purdue.
Diamond Stone and Robert Carter will provide some resistance to Purdue’s bigs in the paint, which will be a key to controlling the Boilermakers offense. The Terps used their size to block a season-high 13 shots and scored on six dunks. Stone was the biggest force down low with eight blocks and 10 rebounds. He’s also a gifted offensive threat and dropped 16 on Nebraska.
The backcourt duo of Melo Trimble and Rasheed Sulaimon is perhaps the best in the Big Ten. Trimble has ice water in his veins and the preseason conference player of the year is a big reason why the Terps are a national-best 19-2 in games decided by six points or less over the past two seasons.
The Terps are confident in close games and they don’t lose at home. They bested then No. 3 Iowa at the Xfinity Center on Jan. 28, extending the dominance on their own floor to 25 straight regular season games.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Teams that closely resemble each other, both on the court and in the standings, should provide college basketball fans with a treat. The two have dynamic backcourt starters, dominant play in the post and an athletic swingman. One game separates Maryland from Purdue in the overall standings while the Terps are 9-2 in Big Ten play compared to Purdue’s 7-3 mark. They’re both coming off a win over Nebraska as well. Purdue hasn’t played since beating the Huskers last Saturday, so they should at least be rested. The Boilermakers have a longer bench and coach Matt Painter routinely goes 10-deep in his rotations. That should be an advantage against the Terps, who don’t get much from their reserves. This one has all the makings for being a close game and, like we mentioned, Maryland is really good in those instances. There seems to be a little hometown magic for the Terps as well, winning 25 straight at the Xfinity Center.
Maryland 79, Purdue 76
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